Darling Street Oval · Analysis updated 11:00 UTC
Hamilton Olympic vs Kahibah Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.40 expected goals for Hamilton Olympic and 1.65 for Kahibah, a combined total of 4.05. That distribution gives Hamilton Olympic the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 77% for over 2.5 goals and 73% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Hamilton Olympic win
54.4% probability
Expected goals
2.40 – 1.65
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Hamilton Olympic home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Kahibah away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Hamilton Olympic to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 54% / 19% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.40 goals for Hamilton Olympic and 1.65 for Kahibah, a combined 4.05 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
46%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.3%
- 1–16.9%
- 2–26.8%
- 3–16.6%
- 1–25.7%
Recent form
Hamilton Olympic
- 2026-08-16T04:00:00.000Z · A vs Lambton Jaffas · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-08T04:00:00.000Z · H vs Valentine · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-07-26T03:00:00.000Z · A vs Edgeworth Eagles · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-07-22T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Belmont Swansea · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-07-12T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Broadmeadow Magic · 1-2 (L)
Kahibah
- 2026-09-05T04:00:00.000Z · H vs Newcastle Croatia FC · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T04:00:00.000Z · H vs New Lambton · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-22T06:00:00.000Z · A vs New Lambton · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-16T04:00:00.000Z · H vs Cooks Hill United · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-08-12T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Maitland · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Northern NSW NPL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Broadmeadow Magic | 22 | 15 | 4 | 3 | 36 | 49 |
| 2 | Maitland | 22 | 13 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 42 |
| 3 | Weston Bears | 22 | 12 | 5 | 5 | 15 | 41 |
| 4 | Edgeworth Eagles | 22 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 10 | 39 |
| 5 | Belmont Swansea | 22 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 35 |
| 6 | Cooks Hill United | 22 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 33 |
| 7 | Valentine | 22 | 7 | 5 | 10 | -17 | 26 |
| 8 | Lambton Jaffas | 22 | 7 | 4 | 11 | 5 | 25 |
| 9 | Adamstown Rosebuds | 22 | 6 | 6 | 10 | -11 | 24 |
| 10 | Hamilton Olympic | 22 | 5 | 6 | 11 | -1 | 21 |
| 11 | Kahibah | 22 | 6 | 2 | 14 | -18 | 20 |
| 12 | Charlestown City Blues | 22 | 4 | 2 | 16 | -37 | 14 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Hamilton Olympic win, at 54.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 73% and over 2.5 goals at 77%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.