Hamilton Wanderers vs Eastern Suburbs Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.90 expected goals for Hamilton Wanderers and 1.14 for Eastern Suburbs, a combined total of 3.04. That distribution gives Hamilton Wanderers the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Hamilton Wanderers win

55.1% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

1.90 – 1.14

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Hamilton Wanderers home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Eastern Suburbs away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Hamilton Wanderers to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 55% / 22% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.90 goals for Hamilton Wanderers and 1.14 for Eastern Suburbs, a combined 3.04 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Hamilton Wanderers win55%

Draw22%

Eastern Suburbs win23%

Double chance 1X

77%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

45%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals81%

Over 2.5 goals59%

Over 3.5 goals36%

Both teams to score58%

Correct score

1–110.3%
2–19.8%
1–09.1%
2–08.6%
3–16.2%

Recent form

Hamilton Wanderers

2025-06-14T03:00:00.000Z · H vs Manukau United · 1-2 (L)
2025-05-31T02:00:00.000Z · H vs Northern Rovers · 3-2 (W)
2025-05-10T02:00:00.000Z · A vs South Auckland Rangers · 5-1 (W)
2024-08-31T05:30:00.000Z · A vs Western Springs · 1-2 (L)
2024-08-24T03:00:00.000Z · H vs Eastern Suburbs · 0-0 (D)

Eastern Suburbs

2026-10-25T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Miramar · 1-4 (L)
2026-10-17T02:00:00.000Z · A vs Wellington Olympic · 0-4 (L)
2026-10-03T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Auckland City · 2-4 (L)
2026-09-26T03:30:00.000Z · A vs Ferrymead Bays · 0-0 (D)
2025-08-30T03:00:00.000Z · A vs Birkenhead United · 2-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

National League - Northern table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Western Springs	22	13	3	6	14	42
2	Birkenhead United	22	12	5	5	22	41
3	Auckland United	22	12	4	6	15	40
4	Auckland City	22	12	4	6	11	40
5	Eastern Suburbs	22	12	4	6	8	40
6	East Coast Bays	22	10	6	6	5	36
7	Tauranga City United	22	9	3	10	4	30
8	Bay Olympic	22	6	6	10	-10	24
9	Auckland II	22	6	5	11	-4	23
10	Fencibles United	22	5	6	11	-12	21
11	Manurewa	22	4	4	14	-33	16
12	West Coast Rangers	22	3	6	13	-20	15

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Hamilton Wanderers win, at 55.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.

A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.