Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.58 expected goals for Hammarby FF and 0.91 for IF Elfsborg, a combined total of 2.48. That distribution gives Hammarby FF the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 45% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Hammarby FF win

53.1% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.58 – 0.91

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Hammarby FF home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
IF Elfsborg away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Hammarby FF to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 53% / 25% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.58 goals for Hammarby FF and 0.91 for IF Elfsborg, a combined 2.48 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Hammarby FF win53%

Draw25%

IF Elfsborg win22%

Double chance 1X

78%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

47%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals71%

Over 2.5 goals45%

Over 3.5 goals24%

Both teams to score47%

Correct score

1–013.2%
1–111.9%
2–010.4%
2–19.4%
0–08.3%

Recent form

Hammarby FF

2026-10-18T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Halmstad · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Djurgardens IF · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-03T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Vasteras SK FK · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-20T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Degerfors IF · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · H vs IF Brommapojkarna · 3-1 (W)

IF Elfsborg

2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Djurgardens IF · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Kalmar FF · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-06T14:30:00.000Z · A vs IF Brommapojkarna · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-29T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Degerfors IF · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-23T12:00:00.000Z · A vs IFK Goteborg · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Allsvenskan table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Sirius	25	17	4	4	24	55
2	Djurgardens IF	25	15	3	7	29	48
3	Hammarby FF	24	14	4	6	29	46
4	BK Hacken	25	12	9	4	17	45
5	IF Elfsborg	25	11	9	5	13	42
6	Vasteras SK FK	25	11	5	9	-2	38
7	Malmo FF	25	11	4	10	4	37
8	AIK Stockholm	25	10	7	8	-3	37
9	IFK Goteborg	24	10	6	8	-9	36
10	IF Brommapojkarna	25	9	6	10	-4	33
11	Gais	24	8	6	10	5	30
12	Mjallby AIF	24	5	8	11	-12	23
13	Kalmar FF	25	6	4	15	-18	22
14	Degerfors IF	25	5	5	15	-20	20
15	Orgryte IS	25	4	7	14	-25	19
16	Halmstad	25	4	5	16	-28	17

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Hammarby FF win, at 53.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 45%.

A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.