Hammarby FF vs Raków Częstochowa Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.81 expected goals for Hammarby FF and 1.18 for Raków Częstochowa, a combined total of 2.99. That distribution gives Hammarby FF the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Hammarby FF win

52.1% probability

Low confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

1.81 – 1.18

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Hammarby FF home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Hammarby FF to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 52% / 23% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.81 goals for Hammarby FF and 1.18 for Raków Częstochowa, a combined 2.99 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 58% and both teams to score at 58%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.

Match result (1X2)

Hammarby FF win52%

Draw23%

Raków Częstochowa win25%

Double chance 1X

75%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

48%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals80%

Over 2.5 goals58%

Over 3.5 goals35%

Both teams to score58%

Correct score

1–110.7%
2–19.7%
1–09.1%
2–08.2%
1–26.3%

Recent form

Hammarby FF

2026-10-18T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Halmstad · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Djurgardens IF · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-03T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Vasteras SK FK · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-20T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Degerfors IF · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · H vs IF Brommapojkarna · 3-1 (W)

Raków Częstochowa

2026-10-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Wieczysta Kraków · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-09T18:30:00.000Z · H vs GKS Katowice · 1-4 (L)
2026-10-02T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Polonia Bytom · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-19T12:45:00.000Z · A vs Korona Kielce · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-15T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Zaglebie Lubin · 2-3 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-08-13T17:00:00.000Z · Hammarby FF 0-1 Raków Częstochowa (UEFA Europa Conference League)
2026-08-06T17:00:00.000Z · Hammarby FF 0-0 Raków Częstochowa (UEFA Europa Conference League)

UEFA Europa Conference League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Panathinaikos	2	2	0	0	5	6
2	FC Lugano	2	2	0	0	4	6
3	Brann	2	2	0	0	4	6
4	Trabzonspor	2	2	0	0	4	6
5	Twente	2	2	0	0	4	6
6	Monaco	2	2	0	0	4	6
7	St. Truiden	2	2	0	0	3	6
8	HNK Hajduk Split	2	2	0	0	2	6
9	Brighton	2	1	1	0	4	4
10	FC Copenhagen	2	1	1	0	3	4
11	Universitatea Craiova	2	1	1	0	2	4
12	Mjallby AIF	2	1	1	0	2	4
13	Ajax	2	1	0	1	1	3
14	Borac Banja Luka	2	1	0	1	1	3
15	Atalanta	2	1	0	1	0	3
16	SC Braga	2	1	0	1	-1	3
17	Gent	2	1	0	1	-1	3
18	SC Freiburg	2	1	0	1	-2	3
19	FC Nordsjaelland	2	0	2	0	0	2
20	Egnatia Rrogozhinë	2	0	2	0	0	2
21	Riga	2	0	2	0	0	2
22	FK Crvena Zvezda	2	0	1	1	-1	1
23	CSKA Sofia	2	0	1	1	-1	1
24	FK Jablonec	2	0	1	1	-1	1
25	FC Midtjylland	2	0	1	1	-1	1
26	Aarhus	2	0	1	1	-1	1
27	Pafos	2	0	1	1	-2	1
28	Heart Of Midlothian	2	0	1	1	-2	1
29	FC Iberia 1999	2	0	1	1	-2	1
30	Getafe	2	0	1	1	-3	1
31	Kairat Almaty	2	0	1	1	-4	1
32	FC Thun	2	0	0	2	-2	0
33	Lincoln Red Imps FC	2	0	0	2	-4	0
34	KuPS	2	0	0	2	-4	0
35	Inter Club d'Escaldes	2	0	0	2	-4	0
36	Kauno Žalgiris	2	0	0	2	-7	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Hammarby FF win, at 52.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.

A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.