Hammarby IP · Analysis updated 06:24 UTC
Hammarby Talang vs Stocksund Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.66 expected goals for Hammarby Talang and 0.89 for Stocksund, a combined total of 3.55. That distribution gives Hammarby Talang the largest share of the 1X2 market at 75%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 75% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Hammarby Talang win
74.9% probability
Expected goals
2.66 – 0.89
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Hammarby Talang home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Stocksund away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Hammarby Talang to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 75%, against 75% / 15% / 10% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.66 goals for Hammarby Talang and 0.89 for Stocksund, a combined 3.55 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
90%
Double chance 12
85%
Double chance X2
25%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–010.2%
- 2–19.0%
- 3–09.0%
- 3–18.0%
- 1–07.6%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 11.1%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | No | 2.15 | 42.7% | 45.3% | 2.21 | +2.6 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 4.00 | 23.7% | 25.1% | 3.98 | +1.4 |
| Match result | Away | 9.00 | 10.0% | 10.1% | 9.90 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 6.00 | 15.0% | 15.0% | 6.67 | 0.0 |
| Match result | Home | 1.20 | 75.0% | 74.9% | 1.34 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.05 | 90.2% | 89.9% | 1.11 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.10 | 86.1% | 85.0% | 1.18 | -1.1 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.60 | 57.3% | 54.7% | 1.83 | -2.6 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Hammarby Talang
- 2026-10-23T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Järfälla · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs IF Karlstad · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Enköping · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Umeå FC · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-25T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Stocksund · 2-1 (W)
Stocksund
- 2026-09-25T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Hammarby Talang · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Umeå FC · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-17T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Stockholm Internazionale · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs IF Karlstad · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-04T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Assyriska FF · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Ettan - Norra table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stockholm Internazionale | 28 | 20 | 4 | 4 | 45 | 64 |
| 2 | AFC Eskilstuna | 28 | 16 | 5 | 7 | 17 | 53 |
| 3 | Arlanda | 28 | 15 | 6 | 7 | 15 | 51 |
| 4 | Enköping | 28 | 16 | 3 | 9 | 3 | 51 |
| 5 | Hammarby Talang | 28 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 26 | 49 |
| 6 | FBK Karlstad | 28 | 13 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 46 |
| 7 | IF Karlstad | 28 | 12 | 8 | 8 | 11 | 44 |
| 8 | Umeå FC | 28 | 11 | 6 | 11 | -4 | 39 |
| 9 | Assyriska FF | 28 | 10 | 5 | 13 | -5 | 35 |
| 10 | Gefle IF | 28 | 10 | 5 | 13 | -13 | 35 |
| 11 | Karlberg | 28 | 9 | 7 | 12 | -10 | 34 |
| 12 | Sollentuna | 28 | 7 | 10 | 11 | -7 | 31 |
| 13 | Vasalund | 28 | 7 | 7 | 14 | -22 | 28 |
| 14 | Piteå | 28 | 5 | 9 | 14 | -18 | 24 |
| 15 | Järfälla | 28 | 6 | 5 | 17 | -21 | 23 |
| 16 | Stocksund | 28 | 3 | 6 | 19 | -23 | 15 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Hammarby Talang win, at 74.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 69%.
A 75% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.