Hammarby IP · Analysis updated 18:06 UTC
Hammarby W vs Gamla Upsala W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.14 expected goals for Hammarby W and 0.72 for Gamla Upsala W, a combined total of 2.86. That distribution gives Hammarby W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 70%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 70% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Hammarby W win
70.1% probability
Expected goals
2.14 – 0.72
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Hammarby W home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Gamla Upsala W away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Hammarby W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 70%, against 70% / 19% / 11% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.14 goals for Hammarby W and 0.72 for Gamla Upsala W, a combined 2.86 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
89%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
30%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–013.1%
- 1–012.3%
- 2–19.4%
- 3–09.3%
- 1–18.8%
Recent form
Hammarby W
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Brommapojkarna W · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-30T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Rangers W · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Eskilstuna United W · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-23T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Rangers W · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · A vs AIK W · 1-2 (L)
Gamla Upsala W
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Enskede W · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Husqvarna W · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Alingsås W · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Örebro SK W · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-09T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Hammarby W · 0-5 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Hammarby W win, at 70.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.