Hammarby W vs Kristianstad W Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.23 expected goals for Hammarby W and 1.05 for Kristianstad W, a combined total of 3.28. That distribution gives Hammarby W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 64%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 64% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Hammarby W win

63.9% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.23 – 1.05

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Hammarby W home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Kristianstad W away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Hammarby W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 64%, against 64% / 19% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.23 goals for Hammarby W and 1.05 for Kristianstad W, a combined 3.28 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Hammarby W win64%

Draw19%

Kristianstad W win17%

Double chance 1X

83%

Double chance 12

81%

Double chance X2

36%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals84%

Over 2.5 goals64%

Over 3.5 goals41%

Both teams to score58%

Correct score

2–19.8%
2–09.4%
1–18.8%
1–08.4%
3–17.3%

Recent form

Hammarby W

2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Brommapojkarna W · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-30T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Rangers W · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Eskilstuna United W · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-23T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Rangers W · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · A vs AIK W · 1-2 (L)

Kristianstad W

2026-10-24T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Malmö FF W · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Uppsala W · 5-0 (W)
2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Växjö W · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-26T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Vittsjö W · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-23T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Värnamo W · 8-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Damallsvenskan table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Häcken W	22	20	1	1	60	61
2	Hammarby W	22	17	2	3	38	53
3	Malmö FF W	22	12	6	4	27	42
4	Kristianstad W	22	10	5	7	8	35
5	AIK W	22	10	4	8	0	34
6	Vittsjö W	22	9	5	8	1	32
7	Brommapojkarna W	22	10	2	10	-7	32
8	Djurgården W	22	8	3	11	-6	27
9	Eskilstuna United W	22	8	3	11	-10	27
10	Piteå W	22	6	6	10	-7	24
11	Rosengård W	22	6	5	11	-3	23
12	Norrköping W	22	4	8	10	-17	20
13	Växjö W	22	5	3	14	-20	18
14	Uppsala W	22	1	3	18	-64	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Hammarby W win, at 63.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.

A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.