3Arena · Referee Alexandra Collin · Analysis updated 05:19 UTC
Hammarby W vs Metalist 1925 W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.87 expected goals for Hammarby W and 1.26 for Metalist 1925 W, a combined total of 3.13. That distribution gives Hammarby W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Hammarby W win
51.6% probability
Expected goals
1.87 – 1.26
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Hammarby W home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Hammarby W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 52% / 23% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.87 goals for Hammarby W and 1.26 for Metalist 1925 W, a combined 3.13 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 61% and both teams to score at 61%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
48%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.3%
- 2–19.6%
- 1–08.2%
- 2–07.6%
- 1–26.5%
Recent form
Hammarby W
- 2026-10-24T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Djurgården W · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-18T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Häcken W · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Brommapojkarna W · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-30T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Rangers W · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Eskilstuna United W · 3-0 (W)
Metalist 1925 W
- 2026-09-01T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Mitrovica W · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-08-26T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Mitrovica W · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-08T11:00:00.000Z · H vs TSC W · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-05T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Fenerbahce W · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-01-18T12:30:00.000Z · A vs India W · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2025-08-27T17:00:00.000Z · Hammarby W 5-4 Metalist 1925 W (UEFA Champions League Women)
UEFA Champions League Women table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona W | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 6 |
| 2 | Lyon W | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 4 |
| 3 | Paris Saint Germain W | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 4 |
| 4 | Bayern Munich W | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| 5 | Arsenal W | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 6 | Inter Milano W | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 7 | Chelsea W | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 8 | Køge W | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 |
| 9 | Juventus W | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 10 | SL Benfica W | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
| 11 | Manchester City W | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 12 | Real Madrid W | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 13 | Austria Wien W | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 14 | Paris FC W | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 1 |
| 15 | OH Leuven W | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -5 | 1 |
| 16 | Roma W | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -6 | 1 |
| 17 | Häcken W | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
| 18 | Servette Chênois W | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -12 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Hammarby W win, at 51.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.