Hammarby IP · Analysis updated 15:44 UTC
Hammarby W vs Spartak Myjava W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.76 expected goals for Hammarby W and 2.22 for Spartak Myjava W, a combined total of 3.98. That distribution gives Spartak Myjava W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 76% for over 2.5 goals and 74% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Spartak Myjava W win
48.5% probability
Expected goals
1.76 – 2.22
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Hammarby W home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Spartak Myjava W away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Spartak Myjava W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 31% / 20% / 49% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.76 goals for Hammarby W and 2.22 for Spartak Myjava W, a combined 3.98 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
52%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
69%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.1%
- 1–17.3%
- 2–27.1%
- 2–16.4%
- 1–36.0%
Recent form
Hammarby W
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Brommapojkarna W · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-30T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Rangers W · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Eskilstuna United W · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-23T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Rangers W · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · A vs AIK W · 1-2 (L)
Spartak Myjava W
- 2026-10-17T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Z. Moravce-Vrable W · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Spartak Trnava W · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-09-30T16:00:00.000Z · H vs PAOK W · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-23T13:00:00.000Z · A vs PAOK W · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Komárno W · 8-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Spartak Myjava W win, at 48.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 74% and over 2.5 goals at 76%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.