Beveree Stadium · Analysis updated 15:37 UTC
Hampton & Richmond vs Chelmsford City Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.85 expected goals for Hampton & Richmond and 1.90 for Chelmsford City, a combined total of 3.75. That distribution gives Chelmsford City the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 72% for over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
61.7% probability
Expected goals
1.85 – 1.90
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Hampton & Richmond home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Chelmsford City away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
60%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
62%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–18.3%
- 1–27.9%
- 2–17.6%
- 2–27.3%
- 1–35.0%
Recent form
Hampton & Richmond
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dagenham & Redbridge · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-22T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Crowborough Athletic · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Crowborough Athletic · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Chelmsford City · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Farnborough · 2-0 (W)
Chelmsford City
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Brackley Town · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Horsham · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Canvey Island · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Hampton & Richmond · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Dorking Wanderers · 3-3 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · Hampton & Richmond 1-1 Chelmsford City (National League - South)
- 2026-02-14T15:00:00.000Z · Hampton & Richmond 1-3 Chelmsford City (National League - South)
- 2025-11-08T15:00:00.000Z · Hampton & Richmond 0-1 Chelmsford City (National League - South)
- 2024-12-14T15:00:00.000Z · Hampton & Richmond 3-2 Chelmsford City (National League - South)
- 2024-08-17T14:00:00.000Z · Hampton & Richmond 1-1 Chelmsford City (National League - South)
- 2024-01-27T15:00:00.000Z · Hampton & Richmond 0-1 Chelmsford City (National League - South)
- 2023-08-12T14:00:00.000Z · Hampton & Richmond 1-1 Chelmsford City (National League - South)
- 2023-03-11T15:00:00.000Z · Hampton & Richmond 2-1 Chelmsford City (National League - South)
- 2022-11-12T15:00:00.000Z · Hampton & Richmond 2-0 Chelmsford City (National League - South)
- 2022-02-12T15:00:00.000Z · Hampton & Richmond 0-1 Chelmsford City (National League - South)
National League - South table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maidstone Utd | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 25 |
| 2 | Ebbsfleet United | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 16 | 21 |
| 3 | Salisbury | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 21 |
| 4 | Billericay Town | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 21 |
| 5 | Truro City | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 21 |
| 6 | Tonbridge Angels | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 20 |
| 7 | Dagenham & Redbridge | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 20 |
| 8 | Weston-super-Mare | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 18 |
| 9 | Dover | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 18 |
| 10 | Dorking Wanderers | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 17 |
| 11 | Farnham Town | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 17 |
| 12 | Folkestone Invicta | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 16 |
| 13 | Torquay | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 16 |
| 14 | Chelmsford City | 10 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 6 | 14 |
| 15 | Horsham | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | -1 | 14 |
| 16 | Hemel Hempstead Town | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | -1 | 14 |
| 17 | Farnborough | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 14 |
| 18 | Maidenhead | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 13 |
| 19 | Chesham United | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -8 | 10 |
| 20 | Braintree | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -9 | 10 |
| 21 | AFC Totton | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | -14 | 10 |
| 22 | Hampton & Richmond | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -15 | 8 |
| 23 | Walton & Hersham | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -17 | 8 |
| 24 | Slough Town | 12 | 1 | 1 | 10 | -19 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 61.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 72% and over 2.5 goals at 72%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.