Beveree Stadium · Analysis updated 22:32 UTC
Hampton & Richmond vs Croydon Athletic Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.14 expected goals for Hampton & Richmond and 1.72 for Croydon Athletic, a combined total of 3.86. That distribution gives Hampton & Richmond the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 74% for over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Hampton & Richmond win
47.8% probability
Expected goals
2.14 – 1.72
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Hampton & Richmond home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Croydon Athletic away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Hampton & Richmond to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 48% / 21% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.14 goals for Hampton & Richmond and 1.72 for Croydon Athletic, a combined 3.86 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
52%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.3%
- 1–17.8%
- 2–27.1%
- 1–26.7%
- 3–15.9%
Recent form
Hampton & Richmond
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ebbsfleet United · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dagenham & Redbridge · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-22T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Crowborough Athletic · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Crowborough Athletic · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Chelmsford City · 1-1 (D)
Croydon Athletic
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Waltham Abbey · 1-7 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Raynes Park Vale · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Leatherhead · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sevenoaks Town · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-07-04T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Folkestone Invicta · 2-5 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Hampton & Richmond win, at 47.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 72% and over 2.5 goals at 74%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.