· Referee P. Farrugia · Analysis updated 06:19 UTC
Hamrun Spartans vs Marsaxlokk Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.95 expected goals for Hamrun Spartans and 1.80 for Marsaxlokk, a combined total of 2.75. That distribution gives Marsaxlokk the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Marsaxlokk win
57.4% probability
Expected goals
0.95 – 1.80
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Hamrun Spartans home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Marsaxlokk away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
43%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
80%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–111.5%
- 1–110.9%
- 0–210.4%
- 1–29.8%
- 0–06.4%
Recent form
Hamrun Spartans
- 2026-08-29T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Floriana · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-22T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Birkirkara · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-17T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Mosta · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-07-16T17:30:00.000Z · H vs NSI Runavik · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-07-09T18:45:00.000Z · A vs NSI Runavik · 1-1 (D)
Marsaxlokk
- 2026-10-24T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Sliema Wanderers · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-21T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Birzebbuga · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-16T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Birkirkara · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Zabbar St. Patrick · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-18T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Hamrun Spartans · 1-4 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-18T18:30:00.000Z · Hamrun Spartans 4-1 Marsaxlokk (Premier League)
- 2026-05-09T17:30:00.000Z · Hamrun Spartans 1-2 Marsaxlokk (Premier League)
- 2026-04-11T15:30:00.000Z · Hamrun Spartans 2-3 Marsaxlokk (Premier League)
- 2026-02-23T19:00:00.000Z · Hamrun Spartans 2-0 Marsaxlokk (Premier League)
- 2025-12-14T15:00:00.000Z · Hamrun Spartans 1-3 Marsaxlokk (Premier League)
- 2025-09-23T16:45:00.000Z · Hamrun Spartans 2-0 Marsaxlokk (Premier League)
- 2025-04-30T16:30:00.000Z · Hamrun Spartans 1-0 Marsaxlokk (Premier League)
- 2025-01-05T14:15:00.000Z · Hamrun Spartans 6-1 Marsaxlokk (Premier League)
- 2024-11-02T14:00:00.000Z · Hamrun Spartans 2-3 Marsaxlokk (Premier League)
- 2024-08-06T17:30:00.000Z · Hamrun Spartans 1-1 Marsaxlokk (Friendlies Clubs)
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Valletta FC | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 22 |
| 2 | Marsaxlokk | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 17 |
| 3 | Sliema Wanderers | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 17 |
| 4 | Floriana | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 16 |
| 5 | Hamrun Spartans | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 16 |
| 6 | Birkirkara | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 14 |
| 7 | Mosta | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 13 |
| 8 | Hibernians | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 12 |
| 9 | Balzan FC | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 10 | Zabbar St. Patrick | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 8 |
| 11 | Gzira United | 10 | 0 | 5 | 5 | -12 | 5 |
| 12 | Birzebbuga | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | -12 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Marsaxlokk win, at 57.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.