· Referee D. Portelli · Analysis updated 04:35 UTC
Hamrun Spartans vs Naxxar Lions Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Hamrun Spartans and 1.00 for Naxxar Lions, a combined total of 2.48. That distribution gives Hamrun Spartans the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 45% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Hamrun Spartans win
48.1% probability
Expected goals
1.48 – 1.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Hamrun Spartans home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Naxxar Lions away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
52%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.4%
- 1–112.4%
- 2–09.2%
- 2–19.2%
- 0–08.4%
Recent form
Hamrun Spartans
- 2026-08-29T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Floriana · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-22T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Birkirkara · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-17T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Mosta · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-07-16T17:30:00.000Z · H vs NSI Runavik · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-07-09T18:45:00.000Z · A vs NSI Runavik · 1-1 (D)
Naxxar Lions
- 2026-10-24T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Santa Lucía · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Victoria Hotspurs · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Sirens · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Zebbug Rangers · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Pietà Hotspurs · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-19T15:30:00.000Z · Hamrun Spartans 3-0 Naxxar Lions (Premier League)
- 2026-02-07T18:00:00.000Z · Hamrun Spartans 4-0 Naxxar Lions (Premier League)
- 2025-10-26T18:00:00.000Z · Hamrun Spartans 1-1 Naxxar Lions (Premier League)
- 2025-03-31T13:00:00.000Z · Hamrun Spartans 4-0 Naxxar Lions (Premier League)
- 2024-09-27T18:30:00.000Z · Hamrun Spartans 6-0 Naxxar Lions (Premier League)
- 2024-02-04T13:00:00.000Z · Hamrun Spartans 4-1 Naxxar Lions (Premier League)
- 2023-09-23T18:15:00.000Z · Hamrun Spartans 4-0 Naxxar Lions (Premier League)
- 2022-02-10T10:00:00.000Z · Hamrun Spartans 1-0 Naxxar Lions (FA Trophy)
- 2018-03-10T15:00:00.000Z · Hamrun Spartans 4-1 Naxxar Lions (Premier League)
- 2017-11-04T15:15:00.000Z · Hamrun Spartans 2-0 Naxxar Lions (Premier League)
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Valletta FC | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 22 |
| 2 | Marsaxlokk | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 17 |
| 3 | Sliema Wanderers | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 17 |
| 4 | Floriana | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 16 |
| 5 | Hamrun Spartans | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 16 |
| 6 | Birkirkara | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 14 |
| 7 | Mosta | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 13 |
| 8 | Hibernians | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 12 |
| 9 | Balzan FC | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 10 | Zabbar St. Patrick | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 8 |
| 11 | Gzira United | 10 | 0 | 5 | 5 | -12 | 5 |
| 12 | Birzebbuga | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | -12 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Hamrun Spartans win, at 48.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 45%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.