Hangzhou Dragon Stadium · Referee Xin He, China · Analysis updated 06:49 UTC
Hangzhou Greentown vs SHANGHAI SIPG Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.63 expected goals for Hangzhou Greentown and 1.77 for SHANGHAI SIPG, a combined total of 3.40. That distribution gives SHANGHAI SIPG the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
64.2% probability
Expected goals
1.63 – 1.77
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Hangzhou Greentown home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
SHANGHAI SIPG away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates SHANGHAI SIPG to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 36% / 23% / 42% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.63 goals for Hangzhou Greentown and 1.77 for SHANGHAI SIPG, a combined 3.40 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
58%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
64%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.6%
- 1–28.5%
- 2–17.8%
- 2–26.9%
- 0–15.9%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 10.5%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 3.10 (model 33.3% vs market 30.0%, edge +3.3 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 3.10 | 30.0% | 33.3% | 3.00 | +3.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.62 | 57.9% | 58.4% | 1.71 | +0.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.22 | 76.9% | 77.4% | 1.29 | +0.5 |
| Match result | Away | 2.20 | 41.2% | 41.6% | 2.40 | +0.4 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.00 | 22.6% | 22.6% | 4.42 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Home | 2.50 | 36.2% | 35.8% | 2.79 | -0.4 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.44 | 65.2% | 64.2% | 1.56 | -1.0 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.33 | 70.0% | 66.7% | 1.50 | -3.3 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Hangzhou Greentown
- 2026-10-09T12:00:00.000Z · H vs SHANGHAI SIPG · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-18T11:35:00.000Z · H vs Wuhan Three Towns · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Tianjin Teda · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-29T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Yunnan Yukun · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-08-22T11:35:00.000Z · A vs Sichuan Jiuniu · 1-1 (D)
SHANGHAI SIPG
- 2026-10-24T07:30:00.000Z · A vs Tianjin Teda · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Chengdu Better City · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-13T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Daejeon Citizen · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-09T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Hangzhou Greentown · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-15T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Ratchaburi · 6-4 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chengdu Better City | 29 | 15 | 7 | 7 | 16 | 52 |
| 2 | Dalian Zhixing | 29 | 15 | 4 | 10 | 3 | 49 |
| 3 | Beijing Guoan | 29 | 14 | 10 | 5 | 21 | 47 |
| 4 | Shandong Luneng | 29 | 15 | 5 | 9 | 10 | 44 |
| 5 | SHANGHAI SIPG | 29 | 13 | 8 | 8 | 14 | 42 |
| 6 | Yunnan Yukun | 29 | 11 | 7 | 11 | -3 | 40 |
| 7 | Qingdao Youth Island | 29 | 8 | 15 | 6 | -6 | 39 |
| 8 | Shanghai Shenhua | 29 | 14 | 5 | 10 | 13 | 37 |
| 9 | Chongqing Tongliang Long | 29 | 8 | 12 | 9 | -3 | 36 |
| 10 | Hangzhou Greentown | 29 | 11 | 6 | 12 | -3 | 34 |
| 11 | Sichuan Jiuniu | 29 | 9 | 5 | 15 | -12 | 32 |
| 12 | Tianjin Teda | 29 | 11 | 8 | 10 | 4 | 31 |
| 13 | Shenyang Urban | 29 | 8 | 5 | 16 | -11 | 29 |
| 14 | Henan Jianye | 29 | 8 | 10 | 11 | -4 | 28 |
| 15 | Wuhan Three Towns | 29 | 5 | 12 | 12 | -11 | 22 |
| 16 | Qingdao Jonoon | 29 | 6 | 3 | 20 | -28 | 14 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 64.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.