Torvalla idrottsplats · Analysis updated 13:51 UTC
Haninge vs Smedby Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.29 expected goals for Haninge and 1.46 for Smedby, a combined total of 3.75. That distribution gives Haninge the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 72% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Haninge win
56.2% probability
Expected goals
2.29 – 1.46
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Haninge home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Smedby away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 1 of the last 5 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
44%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.0%
- 1–17.9%
- 3–16.9%
- 2–26.6%
- 2–06.2%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 11.1%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 2.00 | 46.4% | 48.4% | 2.07 | +2.0 |
| Match result | Away | 4.00 | 22.5% | 24.0% | 4.17 | +1.5 |
| Match result | Home | 1.62 | 55.6% | 56.2% | 1.78 | +0.6 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.36 | 68.8% | 69.0% | 1.45 | +0.2 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 3.40 | 27.7% | 27.8% | 3.60 | +0.1 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.30 | 72.3% | 72.2% | 1.39 | -0.1 |
| Both teams to score | No | 3.00 | 31.2% | 31.0% | 3.23 | -0.2 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 1.73 | 53.6% | 51.6% | 1.94 | -2.0 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.10 | 21.9% | 19.8% | 5.05 | -2.1 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Haninge
- 2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Forward · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Nacka Iliria · 4-5 (L)
- 2026-10-04T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Örebro Syrianska · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-27T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Smedby · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Eker Örebro · 5-4 (W)
Smedby
- 2026-08-15T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Eker Örebro · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-08T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Karlslund · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-01T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Örebro Syrianska · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-06-24T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Lindo FF · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-06-21T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Haninge · 1-4 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-06-21T14:00:00.000Z · Haninge 4-1 Smedby (Division 2 - Södra Svealand)
- 2024-09-14T14:00:00.000Z · Haninge 5-0 Smedby (Division 2 - Södra Svealand)
- 2024-05-19T14:00:00.000Z · Haninge 2-0 Smedby (Division 2 - Södra Svealand)
- 2023-08-19T14:00:00.000Z · Haninge 3-0 Smedby (Division 2 - Södra Svealand)
- 2023-04-23T12:00:00.000Z · Haninge 0-3 Smedby (Division 2 - Södra Svealand)
Division 2 - Södra Svealand table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Farsta | 26 | 16 | 4 | 6 | 25 | 52 |
| 2 | Sleipner | 26 | 15 | 6 | 5 | 19 | 51 |
| 3 | Nyköping | 26 | 14 | 4 | 8 | 16 | 46 |
| 4 | Forward | 26 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 15 | 45 |
| 5 | Rågsved | 26 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 11 | 45 |
| 6 | Haninge | 26 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 12 | 44 |
| 7 | Smedby | 26 | 10 | 6 | 10 | 3 | 36 |
| 8 | Fittja | 26 | 11 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 36 |
| 9 | Örebro Syrianska | 26 | 10 | 4 | 12 | 1 | 34 |
| 10 | Karlslund | 26 | 8 | 7 | 11 | -6 | 31 |
| 11 | Nacka Iliria | 26 | 9 | 3 | 14 | -16 | 30 |
| 12 | Syrianska FC | 26 | 7 | 5 | 14 | -17 | 26 |
| 13 | Lindo FF | 26 | 6 | 2 | 18 | -20 | 20 |
| 14 | Eker Örebro | 26 | 5 | 3 | 18 | -43 | 18 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Haninge win, at 56.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 72%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.