· Analysis updated 10:47 UTC
Hanley Town vs Coleshill Town Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.90 expected goals for Hanley Town and 1.64 for Coleshill Town, a combined total of 3.54. That distribution gives Hanley Town the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
66.3% probability
Expected goals
1.90 – 1.64
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Hanley Town home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Coleshill Town away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Hanley Town to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 22% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.90 goals for Hanley Town and 1.64 for Coleshill Town, a combined 3.54 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.0%
- 2–18.6%
- 1–27.4%
- 2–27.0%
- 1–05.5%
Recent form
Hanley Town
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Coleshill Town · 2-0 (W)
- 2025-08-30T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Stourbridge · 0-2 (L)
- 2025-08-16T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Belper United · 5-2 (W)
- 2025-08-02T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Lichfield City · 3-1 (W)
- 2025-04-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Mossley · 1-3 (L)
Coleshill Town
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Hanley Town · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-07-28T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Shifnal Town FC · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-07-21T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Alvechurch · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-04-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Corby Town · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-04-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Racing Club Warwick · 1-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 69%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.