Afford Rent a Car Stadium · Analysis updated 16:27 UTC
Hanley Town vs Lichfield City Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.18 expected goals for Hanley Town and 1.72 for Lichfield City, a combined total of 3.90. That distribution gives Hanley Town the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 75% for over 2.5 goals and 73% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Hanley Town win
48.8% probability
Expected goals
2.18 – 1.72
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Hanley Town home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Lichfield City away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Hanley Town to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 21% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.18 goals for Hanley Town and 1.72 for Lichfield City, a combined 3.90 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.3%
- 1–17.6%
- 2–27.1%
- 1–26.5%
- 3–16.0%
Recent form
Hanley Town
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Coleshill Town · 2-0 (W)
- 2025-08-30T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Stourbridge · 0-2 (L)
- 2025-08-16T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Belper United · 5-2 (W)
- 2025-08-02T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Lichfield City · 3-1 (W)
- 2025-04-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Mossley · 1-3 (L)
Lichfield City
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Matlock Town · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-07-04T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Tamworth · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Shepshed Dynamo · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-04-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs AFC Rushden & Diamonds · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-04-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bedworth United · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Hanley Town win, at 48.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 73% and over 2.5 goals at 75%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.