Heinz-von-Heiden-Arena · Referee Felix Prigan, Germany · Analysis updated 16:29 UTC
Hannover 96 vs FC St. Pauli Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.30 expected goals for Hannover 96 and 1.50 for FC St. Pauli, a combined total of 2.80. That distribution gives FC St. Pauli the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
67.1% probability
Expected goals
1.30 – 1.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Hannover 96 home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
FC St. Pauli away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
58%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
67%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.9%
- 0–19.1%
- 1–28.9%
- 1–07.9%
- 2–17.7%
Recent form
Hannover 96
- 2026-10-10T11:00:00.000Z · A vs 1. FC Magdeburg · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Verl · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T11:30:00.000Z · H vs VfL Bochum · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-11T16:30:00.000Z · A vs 1. FC Nürnberg · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-04T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Karlsruher SC · 2-2 (D)
FC St. Pauli
- 2026-09-20T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Energie Cottbus · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T18:30:00.000Z · H vs VfL Wolfsburg · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-04T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Arminia Bielefeld · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-30T11:30:00.000Z · H vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-23T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Rot-Weiß Essen · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2024-04-21T11:30:00.000Z · Hannover 96 1-2 FC St. Pauli (2. Bundesliga)
- 2023-11-10T17:30:00.000Z · Hannover 96 0-0 FC St. Pauli (2. Bundesliga)
- 2023-03-24T12:00:00.000Z · Hannover 96 0-2 FC St. Pauli (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2023-02-05T12:30:00.000Z · Hannover 96 0-2 FC St. Pauli (2. Bundesliga)
- 2022-07-23T18:30:00.000Z · Hannover 96 2-2 FC St. Pauli (2. Bundesliga)
- 2022-02-20T12:30:00.000Z · Hannover 96 3-0 FC St. Pauli (2. Bundesliga)
- 2021-09-11T11:30:00.000Z · Hannover 96 1-0 FC St. Pauli (2. Bundesliga)
- 2021-06-26T13:00:00.000Z · Hannover 96 0-2 FC St. Pauli (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2021-05-16T13:30:00.000Z · Hannover 96 2-1 FC St. Pauli (2. Bundesliga)
- 2021-01-16T12:00:00.000Z · Hannover 96 2-3 FC St. Pauli (2. Bundesliga)
2. Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hertha BSC | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 25 |
| 2 | 1. FC Nürnberg | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 18 |
| 3 | 1. FC Kaiserslautern | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 18 |
| 4 | VfL Wolfsburg | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 16 |
| 5 | 1. FC Magdeburg | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 16 |
| 6 | 1. FC Heidenheim | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 15 |
| 7 | FC St. Pauli | 9 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 12 |
| 8 | VfL Osnabrück | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 11 |
| 9 | Arminia Bielefeld | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 11 |
| 10 | Eintracht Braunschweig | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 10 |
| 11 | Energie Cottbus | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 10 |
| 12 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 9 |
| 13 | Holstein Kiel | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 14 | VfL Bochum | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -4 | 8 |
| 15 | Dynamo Dresden | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 8 |
| 16 | Hannover 96 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 8 |
| 17 | Karlsruher SC | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 8 |
| 18 | SV Darmstadt 98 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -10 | 8 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 67.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.