Ostseestadion · Referee Lars Erbst · Analysis updated 14:48 UTC
Hansa Rostock vs Fortuna Düsseldorf Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.42 expected goals for Hansa Rostock and 1.45 for Fortuna Düsseldorf, a combined total of 2.88. That distribution gives Fortuna Düsseldorf the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
63.0% probability
Expected goals
1.42 – 1.45
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Hansa Rostock home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Fortuna Düsseldorf away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Fortuna Düsseldorf to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 37% / 25% / 38% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.42 goals for Hansa Rostock and 1.45 for Fortuna Düsseldorf, a combined 2.88 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
62%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
63%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.7%
- 1–28.5%
- 2–18.3%
- 0–18.2%
- 1–08.0%
Recent form
Hansa Rostock
- 2026-09-20T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Rot-Weiß Essen · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-16T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Stuttgart II · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-11T17:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Viktoria Köln · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · H vs SV Wehen · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-30T11:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Saarbrücken · 4-2 (W)
Fortuna Düsseldorf
- 2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Hansa Rostock · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Saarbrücken · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-14T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Preußen Münster · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Verl · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Alemannia Aachen · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
3. Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MSV Duisburg | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 25 |
| 2 | FC Viktoria Köln | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 23 |
| 3 | Rot-Weiß Essen | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 21 |
| 4 | FC Saarbrücken | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 17 |
| 5 | Alemannia Aachen | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 17 |
| 6 | FC Ingolstadt 04 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 17 |
| 7 | Hoffenheim II | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 16 |
| 8 | Hansa Rostock | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 16 |
| 9 | SV Wehen | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 15 |
| 10 | Fortuna Düsseldorf | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 15 |
| 11 | SV Meppen | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -1 | 14 |
| 12 | Stuttgart II | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -2 | 14 |
| 13 | Waldhof Mannheim | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 13 |
| 14 | Preußen Münster | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 12 |
| 15 | Verl | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -6 | 12 |
| 16 | SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -12 | 12 |
| 17 | Würzburger Kickers | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 11 |
| 18 | SSV Jahn Regensburg | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 10 |
| 19 | Fortuna Köln | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -3 | 10 |
| 20 | Havelse | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -10 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 63.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.