· Analysis updated 03:55 UTC
Hantharwady United vs Shan United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.00 expected goals for Hantharwady United and 2.50 for Shan United, a combined total of 3.50. That distribution gives Shan United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 70%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 70% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Shan United win
70.0% probability
Expected goals
1.00 – 2.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Hantharwady United home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Shan United away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Shan United to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 70%, against 13% / 17% / 70% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.00 goals for Hantharwady United and 2.50 for Shan United, a combined 3.50 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
30%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
87%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–29.4%
- 1–29.4%
- 0–37.9%
- 1–37.9%
- 0–17.5%
Recent form
Hantharwady United
- 2026-10-18T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Yadanarbon · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Shan United · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Thitsar Arman · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-29T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Dagon · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-03-18T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Shan United · 0-1 (L)
Shan United
- 2026-10-11T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Hantharwady United · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-14T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Ezra · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Ezra · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Myawady · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Yangon Royals · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
National League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dagon | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 13 |
| 2 | Yangon Royals | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 11 |
| 3 | Yadanarbon | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 10 |
| 4 | Shan United | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 7 |
| 5 | Yangon United | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 |
| 6 | Thitsar Arman | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 7 | GFA | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 4 |
| 8 | I.S.P.E | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 4 |
| 9 | Hantharwady United | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 10 | Sagaing United | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 11 | Ayeyawady United | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -10 | 3 |
| 12 | Myawady | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -10 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Shan United win, at 70.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.