Hanworth Villa vs Plymouth Parkway Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.90 expected goals for Hanworth Villa and 1.73 for Plymouth Parkway, a combined total of 3.63. That distribution gives Hanworth Villa the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 70% for over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Home/Draw

64.4% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.90 – 1.73

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Hanworth Villa home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Plymouth Parkway away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Hanworth Villa to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 22% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.90 goals for Hanworth Villa and 1.73 for Plymouth Parkway, a combined 3.63 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Hanworth Villa win43%

Draw22%

Plymouth Parkway win36%

Double chance 1X

64%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

57%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals88%

Over 2.5 goals70%

Over 3.5 goals49%

Both teams to score70%

Correct score

1–18.7%
2–18.3%
1–27.5%
2–27.2%
3–15.3%

Recent form

Hanworth Villa

2026-10-13T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Bracknell Town · 4-1 (W)
2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Gloucester City · 1-3 (L)
2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Leatherhead · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-29T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Chichester City · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bishop's Stortford · 3-2 (W)

Plymouth Parkway

2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Horsham · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-29T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Gloucester City · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bath City · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-22T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Frome Town · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Frome Town · 2-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Non League Premier - Southern South table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Poole Town	12	9	0	3	9	27
2	Uxbridge	11	8	2	1	15	26
3	Bath City	13	8	2	3	9	26
4	Hanworth Villa	13	7	3	3	10	24
5	Plymouth Parkway	11	7	2	2	14	23
6	Chichester City	13	7	1	5	2	22
7	Taunton Town	12	6	1	5	7	19
8	Chertsey Town	12	5	4	3	7	19
9	Frome Town	13	5	4	4	4	19
10	Wimborne Town	11	5	3	3	11	18
11	Gosport Borough	13	5	3	5	2	18
12	Berkhamsted	12	5	1	6	-2	16
13	Bracknell Town	13	4	2	7	-14	14
14	Yate Town	12	3	4	5	-9	13
15	Evesham United	13	4	1	8	-11	13
16	Sholing	11	3	3	5	-4	12
17	Basingstoke Town	12	3	3	6	-6	12
18	Hanwell Town	11	2	5	4	-4	11
19	Malvern Town	13	3	2	8	-15	11
20	Gloucester City	10	2	4	4	-3	10
21	Havant & Wville	13	2	3	8	-8	9
22	Chippenham Town	12	2	3	7	-14	9

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 64.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 70% and over 2.5 goals at 70%.

A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.