· Analysis updated 19:28 UTC
Hapoel Acre vs Hapoel Afula Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.49 expected goals for Hapoel Acre and 2.16 for Hapoel Afula, a combined total of 2.65. That distribution gives Hapoel Afula the largest share of the 1X2 market at 76%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 35% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 76% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Hapoel Afula win
76.0% probability
Expected goals
0.49 – 2.16
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Hapoel Acre home form
1 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Hapoel Afula away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
24%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
93%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–216.4%
- 0–115.2%
- 0–311.8%
- 1–28.1%
- 1–17.5%
Recent form
Hapoel Acre
- 2026-09-24T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Hapoel Afula · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-17T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Maccabi Ahi Nazareth · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-14T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Ashdod · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Kiryat Yam SC · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-08-31T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Bnei Yehuda · 0-3 (L)
Hapoel Afula
- 2026-10-23T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Hapoel Kfar Saba · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-16T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Maccabi Herzliya · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-09T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Ironi Modi'in · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-01T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Hapoel Rishon LeZion · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-24T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Hapoel Acre · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-30T15:45:00.000Z · Hapoel Acre 4-1 Hapoel Afula (Liga Leumit)
- 2026-02-16T17:00:00.000Z · Hapoel Acre 0-2 Hapoel Afula (Liga Leumit)
- 2025-10-12T16:00:00.000Z · Hapoel Acre 2-2 Hapoel Afula (Liga Leumit)
- 2025-04-04T13:00:00.000Z · Hapoel Acre 2-1 Hapoel Afula (Liga Leumit)
- 2024-12-20T13:00:00.000Z · Hapoel Acre 2-1 Hapoel Afula (Liga Leumit)
- 2024-10-09T16:00:00.000Z · Hapoel Acre 1-1 Hapoel Afula (Liga Leumit)
- 2024-05-24T13:00:00.000Z · Hapoel Acre 1-1 Hapoel Afula (Liga Leumit)
- 2024-03-08T13:00:00.000Z · Hapoel Acre 1-0 Hapoel Afula (Liga Leumit)
- 2023-12-01T13:00:00.000Z · Hapoel Acre 0-1 Hapoel Afula (Liga Leumit)
- 2023-03-17T13:00:00.000Z · Hapoel Acre 1-0 Hapoel Afula (Liga Leumit)
Liga Leumit table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ashdod | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 28 |
| 2 | Bnei Yehuda | 11 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 17 | 27 |
| 3 | Hapoel Kfar Shalem | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 23 |
| 4 | Hapoel Rishon LeZion | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 21 |
| 5 | Hapoel Ra'anana | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 19 |
| 6 | Kiryat Yam SC | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 19 |
| 7 | Hapoel Afula | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 18 |
| 8 | Maccabi Bnei Raina | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 17 |
| 9 | Kafr Qasim | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 13 |
| 10 | Hapoel Kfar Saba | 11 | 4 | 0 | 7 | -7 | 12 |
| 11 | Maccabi Kiryat Gat | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -2 | 11 |
| 12 | Maccabi Ahi Nazareth | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -7 | 11 |
| 13 | Ironi Modi'in | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 11 |
| 14 | Maccabi Herzliya | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -5 | 9 |
| 15 | Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa | 11 | 3 | 0 | 8 | -14 | 9 |
| 16 | Hapoel Acre | 11 | 0 | 1 | 10 | -28 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Hapoel Afula win, at 76.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 35% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 76% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.