Toto Turner Stadium · Analysis updated 15:33 UTC
Hapoel Beer Sheva vs Ironi Kiryat Shmona Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.20 expected goals for Hapoel Beer Sheva and 1.90 for Ironi Kiryat Shmona, a combined total of 4.10. That distribution gives Hapoel Beer Sheva the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 78% for over 2.5 goals and 76% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Hapoel Beer Sheva win
45.6% probability
Expected goals
2.20 – 1.90
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Hapoel Beer Sheva home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ironi Kiryat Shmona away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–17.6%
- 2–27.2%
- 1–16.9%
- 1–26.6%
- 3–15.6%
Recent form
Hapoel Beer Sheva
- 2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Ironi Tiberias · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T17:15:00.000Z · H vs Ironi Kiryat Shmona · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Zagreb · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Hapoel Petah Tikva · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-07T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Maccabi Tel Aviv · 1-4 (L)
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
- 2026-09-19T17:15:00.000Z · A vs Hapoel Beer Sheva · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-14T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Maccabi Haifa · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-05T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Hapoel Katamon · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-08-29T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Ironi Tiberias · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-22T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Maccabi Petah Tikva · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-19T17:15:00.000Z · Hapoel Beer Sheva 1-0 Ironi Kiryat Shmona (Ligat Ha'al)
- 2026-01-24T17:30:00.000Z · Hapoel Beer Sheva 3-2 Ironi Kiryat Shmona (Ligat Ha'al)
- 2025-10-18T16:30:00.000Z · Hapoel Beer Sheva 0-1 Ironi Kiryat Shmona (Ligat Ha'al)
- 2024-12-14T15:30:00.000Z · Hapoel Beer Sheva 5-1 Ironi Kiryat Shmona (Ligat Ha'al)
- 2024-08-26T17:00:00.000Z · Hapoel Beer Sheva 1-0 Ironi Kiryat Shmona (Ligat Ha'al)
- 2023-03-12T18:15:00.000Z · Hapoel Beer Sheva 2-1 Ironi Kiryat Shmona (Ligat Ha'al)
- 2022-11-13T18:00:00.000Z · Hapoel Beer Sheva 2-0 Ironi Kiryat Shmona (Ligat Ha'al)
- 2022-02-19T15:30:00.000Z · Hapoel Beer Sheva 0-0 Ironi Kiryat Shmona (Ligat Ha'al)
- 2021-11-27T13:00:00.000Z · Hapoel Beer Sheva 2-1 Ironi Kiryat Shmona (Ligat Ha'al)
- 2021-05-23T18:00:00.000Z · Hapoel Beer Sheva 3-2 Ironi Kiryat Shmona (Ligat Ha'al)
Ligat Ha'al table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maccabi Tel Aviv | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 16 |
| 2 | Hapoel Tel Aviv | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 13 |
| 3 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 4 | Maccabi Haifa | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 12 |
| 5 | Beitar Jerusalem | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| 6 | Hapoel Haifa | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| 7 | Hapoel Katamon | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 8 | Maccabi Netanya | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| 9 | Maccabi Petah Tikva | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 6 |
| 10 | Bnei Sakhnin | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 |
| 11 | Hapoel Petah Tikva | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 12 | Ironi Kiryat Shmona | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -8 | 3 |
| 13 | Hapoel Ramat Gan | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -9 | 3 |
| 14 | Ironi Tiberias | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Hapoel Beer Sheva win, at 45.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 76% and over 2.5 goals at 78%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.