Toto Turner Stadium · Analysis updated 13:33 UTC
Hapoel Beer Sheva vs Maccabi Tel Aviv Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.75 expected goals for Hapoel Beer Sheva and 2.75 for Maccabi Tel Aviv, a combined total of 4.50. That distribution gives Maccabi Tel Aviv the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 82% for over 2.5 goals and 77% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Maccabi Tel Aviv win
58.9% probability
Expected goals
1.75 – 2.75
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Hapoel Beer Sheva home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Maccabi Tel Aviv away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
41%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
77%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–27.4%
- 1–36.7%
- 2–26.4%
- 2–35.9%
- 1–15.3%
Recent form
Hapoel Beer Sheva
- 2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Ironi Tiberias · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T17:15:00.000Z · H vs Ironi Kiryat Shmona · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Zagreb · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Hapoel Petah Tikva · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-07T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Maccabi Tel Aviv · 1-4 (L)
Maccabi Tel Aviv
- 2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Maccabi Netanya · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-14T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Hapoel Tel Aviv · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-07T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Hapoel Beer Sheva · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-08-31T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Maccabi Haifa · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-27T16:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Lugano · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-07T17:30:00.000Z · Hapoel Beer Sheva 1-4 Maccabi Tel Aviv (Ligat Ha'al)
- 2026-07-16T16:30:00.000Z · Hapoel Beer Sheva 1-3 Maccabi Tel Aviv (Super Cup)
- 2026-05-26T17:30:00.000Z · Hapoel Beer Sheva 1-2 Maccabi Tel Aviv (State Cup)
- 2026-05-19T17:30:00.000Z · Hapoel Beer Sheva 4-2 Maccabi Tel Aviv (Ligat Ha'al)
- 2026-04-28T16:30:00.000Z · Hapoel Beer Sheva 0-1 Maccabi Tel Aviv (Ligat Ha'al)
- 2026-04-12T17:30:00.000Z · Hapoel Beer Sheva 3-1 Maccabi Tel Aviv (Ligat Ha'al)
- 2025-12-07T18:30:00.000Z · Hapoel Beer Sheva 1-0 Maccabi Tel Aviv (Ligat Ha'al)
- 2025-07-13T16:30:00.000Z · Hapoel Beer Sheva 2-1 Maccabi Tel Aviv (Super Cup)
- 2025-05-05T17:30:00.000Z · Hapoel Beer Sheva 1-1 Maccabi Tel Aviv (Ligat Ha'al)
- 2025-03-31T17:30:00.000Z · Hapoel Beer Sheva 1-3 Maccabi Tel Aviv (Ligat Ha'al)
Ligat Ha'al table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maccabi Tel Aviv | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 16 |
| 2 | Hapoel Tel Aviv | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 13 |
| 3 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 4 | Maccabi Haifa | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 12 |
| 5 | Beitar Jerusalem | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| 6 | Hapoel Haifa | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| 7 | Hapoel Katamon | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 8 | Maccabi Netanya | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| 9 | Maccabi Petah Tikva | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 6 |
| 10 | Bnei Sakhnin | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 |
| 11 | Hapoel Petah Tikva | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 12 | Ironi Kiryat Shmona | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -8 | 3 |
| 13 | Hapoel Ramat Gan | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -9 | 3 |
| 14 | Ironi Tiberias | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Maccabi Tel Aviv win, at 58.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 77% and over 2.5 goals at 82%.
A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.