· Analysis updated 22:09 UTC
Hapoel Bnei Musmus vs Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.16 expected goals for Hapoel Bnei Musmus and 0.96 for Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm, a combined total of 2.12. That distribution gives Hapoel Bnei Musmus the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 36% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
69.8% probability
Expected goals
1.16 – 0.96
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Hapoel Bnei Musmus home form
4 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Hapoel Bnei Musmus to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 30% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.16 goals for Hapoel Bnei Musmus and 0.96 for Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm, a combined 2.12 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 36% and both teams to score at 42%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.9%
- 1–113.4%
- 0–012.0%
- 0–111.6%
- 2–08.0%
Recent form
Hapoel Bnei Musmus
- 2026-10-12T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Hapoel Nazareth Illit · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-10-09T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-30T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Maccabi K. Ata Bialik · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-23T17:20:00.000Z · A vs Tira · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-18T11:25:00.000Z · H vs Beitar Nahariya · 1-2 (L)
Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm
- 2026-10-01T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-18T08:50:00.000Z · A vs Ironi Nesher · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-10T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Maccabi Neve Sha'anan · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Hapoel Bnei Musmus · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga Alef table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tira | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 20 |
| 2 | Ironi Nesher | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 19 |
| 3 | Shimshon Tel Aviv | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 19 |
| 4 | Dimona | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 18 |
| 5 | Holon Yermiyahu | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 16 |
| 6 | Beitar Nahariya | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 16 |
| 7 | Maccabi Kiryat Malachi | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 15 |
| 8 | Hapoel Hadera | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 15 |
| 9 | Hapoel Ramat HaSharon | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 15 |
| 10 | Hapoel Ironi Karmiel | 8 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 14 |
| 11 | Hapoel Herzliya | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 13 |
| 12 | Hapoel Migdal HaEmek | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12 |
| 13 | Hapoel Nazareth Illit | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 12 |
| 14 | Hapoel Beit Shean | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 11 |
| 15 | Hapoel Sderot | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 11 |
| 16 | Hapoel Azor | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 17 | Ironi Beit Shemesh | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 18 | FC Jerusalem | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 11 |
| 19 | Hapoel Umm al-Fahm | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 20 | Maccabi Ashdod | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 21 | Maccabi K. Ata Bialik | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 10 |
| 22 | Maccabi Yavne | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 9 |
| 23 | Maccabi Neve Sha'anan | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 24 | Hapoel Ihud Bnei Jatt | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 25 | Hapoel Marmorek | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 8 |
| 26 | Ironi Baka El Garbiya | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 8 |
| 27 | Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 7 |
| 28 | Hapoel Bnei Musmus | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 29 | Hapoel Mahane Yehuda | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 30 | Tzeirey Tamra | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -10 | 6 |
| 31 | Hapoel Ironi Arraba | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -15 | 5 |
| 32 | Kfar Saba 1928 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -6 | 4 |
| 33 | Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -11 | 4 |
| 34 | Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -4 | 3 |
| 35 | Tzeirey Tira | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | -15 | 0 |
| 36 | Nordia Jerusalem | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | -22 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 69.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 36%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.