Sammy Ofer Stadium · Analysis updated 21:50 UTC
Hapoel Haifa vs Bnei Sakhnin Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.00 expected goals for Hapoel Haifa and 0.65 for Bnei Sakhnin, a combined total of 1.65. That distribution gives Hapoel Haifa the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 34%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 23% for over 2.5 goals and 30% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 19%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
76.8% probability
Expected goals
1.00 – 0.65
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Hapoel Haifa home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Bnei Sakhnin away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Hapoel Haifa to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 34% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.00 goals for Hapoel Haifa and 0.65 for Bnei Sakhnin, a combined 1.65 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
66%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–019.2%
- 1–019.2%
- 0–112.5%
- 1–112.5%
- 2–09.6%
Recent form
Hapoel Haifa
- 2026-10-24T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Maccabi Tel Aviv · 2-6 (L)
- 2026-10-17T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Hapoel Ramat Gan · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Maccabi Petah Tikva · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Beitar Jerusalem · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-14T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Bnei Sakhnin · 3-1 (W)
Bnei Sakhnin
- 2026-09-19T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Hapoel Ramat Gan · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-14T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Hapoel Haifa · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-07T17:15:00.000Z · H vs Beitar Jerusalem · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-29T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Maccabi Petah Tikva · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-24T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Maccabi Netanya · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Ligat Ha'al table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maccabi Tel Aviv | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 16 | 20 |
| 2 | Hapoel Tel Aviv | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 19 |
| 3 | Maccabi Haifa | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 18 |
| 4 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| 5 | Beitar Jerusalem | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 13 |
| 6 | Bnei Sakhnin | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 7 | Maccabi Netanya | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 8 | Maccabi Petah Tikva | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -4 | 9 |
| 9 | Hapoel Haifa | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 9 |
| 10 | Hapoel Katamon | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 7 |
| 11 | Hapoel Ramat Gan | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -8 | 6 |
| 12 | Hapoel Petah Tikva | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 4 |
| 13 | Ironi Kiryat Shmona | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | -10 | 3 |
| 14 | Ironi Tiberias | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 76.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 30% and over 2.5 goals at 23%.
A 77% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.