Teddy Stadium · Analysis updated 14:51 UTC
Hapoel Katamon vs Hapoel Tel Aviv Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.05 expected goals for Hapoel Katamon and 2.15 for Hapoel Tel Aviv, a combined total of 4.20. That distribution gives Hapoel Tel Aviv the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 79% for over 2.5 goals and 77% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
62.0% probability
Expected goals
2.05 – 2.15
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Hapoel Katamon home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Hapoel Tel Aviv away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
58%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
62%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–27.3%
- 1–27.1%
- 2–16.8%
- 1–16.6%
- 2–35.2%
Recent form
Hapoel Katamon
- 2026-09-19T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Maccabi Petah Tikva · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-15T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Ironi Tiberias · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-05T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Ironi Kiryat Shmona · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-08-29T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Hapoel Petah Tikva · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-23T17:15:00.000Z · H vs Maccabi Tel Aviv · 2-5 (L)
Hapoel Tel Aviv
- 2026-09-18T12:45:00.000Z · H vs Hapoel Petah Tikva · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-14T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Maccabi Tel Aviv · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-07T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Hapoel Ramat Gan · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-03T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Beitar Jerusalem · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T17:15:00.000Z · A vs Hapoel Haifa · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-02-13T12:00:00.000Z · Hapoel Katamon 1-3 Hapoel Tel Aviv (Ligat Ha'al)
- 2025-11-08T13:00:00.000Z · Hapoel Katamon 0-0 Hapoel Tel Aviv (Ligat Ha'al)
- 2025-07-29T17:00:00.000Z · Hapoel Katamon 0-3 Hapoel Tel Aviv (Toto Cup Ligat Al)
- 2024-04-01T17:00:00.000Z · Hapoel Katamon 2-0 Hapoel Tel Aviv (Ligat Ha'al)
- 2024-03-09T17:30:00.000Z · Hapoel Katamon 0-0 Hapoel Tel Aviv (Ligat Ha'al)
- 2024-01-27T13:00:00.000Z · Hapoel Katamon 2-0 Hapoel Tel Aviv (State Cup)
- 2023-12-26T17:45:00.000Z · Hapoel Katamon 2-1 Hapoel Tel Aviv (Ligat Ha'al)
- 2023-07-29T16:30:00.000Z · Hapoel Katamon 1-1 Hapoel Tel Aviv (Toto Cup Ligat Al)
- 2023-01-21T13:00:00.000Z · Hapoel Katamon 0-0 Hapoel Tel Aviv (Ligat Ha'al)
- 2022-10-02T17:15:00.000Z · Hapoel Katamon 3-1 Hapoel Tel Aviv (Ligat Ha'al)
Ligat Ha'al table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maccabi Tel Aviv | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 16 |
| 2 | Maccabi Haifa | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 15 |
| 3 | Hapoel Tel Aviv | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 13 |
| 4 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 5 | Beitar Jerusalem | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| 6 | Hapoel Haifa | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| 7 | Hapoel Katamon | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 8 | Maccabi Netanya | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| 9 | Maccabi Petah Tikva | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 6 |
| 10 | Bnei Sakhnin | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 |
| 11 | Hapoel Petah Tikva | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 12 | Ironi Kiryat Shmona | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -8 | 3 |
| 13 | Hapoel Ramat Gan | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -9 | 3 |
| 14 | Ironi Tiberias | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 62.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 77% and over 2.5 goals at 79%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.