Teddy Stadium · Analysis updated 14:51 UTC
Hapoel Katamon vs Ironi Kiryat Shmona Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.70 expected goals for Hapoel Katamon and 1.60 for Ironi Kiryat Shmona, a combined total of 4.30. That distribution gives Hapoel Katamon the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 80% for over 2.5 goals and 74% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Hapoel Katamon win
60.8% probability
Expected goals
2.70 – 1.60
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Hapoel Katamon home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Ironi Kiryat Shmona away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Hapoel Katamon to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 61% / 18% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.70 goals for Hapoel Katamon and 1.60 for Ironi Kiryat Shmona, a combined 4.30 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
39%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–17.9%
- 3–17.1%
- 2–26.3%
- 1–15.9%
- 3–25.7%
Recent form
Hapoel Katamon
- 2026-09-19T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Maccabi Petah Tikva · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-15T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Ironi Tiberias · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-05T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Ironi Kiryat Shmona · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-08-29T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Hapoel Petah Tikva · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-23T17:15:00.000Z · H vs Maccabi Tel Aviv · 2-5 (L)
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
- 2026-09-19T17:15:00.000Z · A vs Hapoel Beer Sheva · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-14T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Maccabi Haifa · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-05T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Hapoel Katamon · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-08-29T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Ironi Tiberias · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-22T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Maccabi Petah Tikva · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Ligat Ha'al table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maccabi Tel Aviv | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 16 |
| 2 | Maccabi Haifa | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 15 |
| 3 | Hapoel Tel Aviv | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 13 |
| 4 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 5 | Beitar Jerusalem | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| 6 | Hapoel Haifa | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| 7 | Hapoel Katamon | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 8 | Maccabi Netanya | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| 9 | Maccabi Petah Tikva | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 6 |
| 10 | Bnei Sakhnin | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 |
| 11 | Hapoel Petah Tikva | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 12 | Ironi Kiryat Shmona | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -8 | 3 |
| 13 | Hapoel Ramat Gan | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -9 | 3 |
| 14 | Ironi Tiberias | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Hapoel Katamon win, at 60.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 74% and over 2.5 goals at 80%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.