HaMoshava Stadium · Analysis updated 06:44 UTC
Hapoel Petah Tikva vs Beitar Jerusalem Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.74 expected goals for Hapoel Petah Tikva and 2.21 for Beitar Jerusalem, a combined total of 2.95. That distribution gives Beitar Jerusalem the largest share of the 1X2 market at 71%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 71% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Beitar Jerusalem win
70.9% probability
Expected goals
0.74 – 2.21
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Hapoel Petah Tikva home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Beitar Jerusalem away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Beitar Jerusalem to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 71%, against 11% / 18% / 71% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.74 goals for Hapoel Petah Tikva and 2.21 for Beitar Jerusalem, a combined 2.95 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
29%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
89%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–212.8%
- 0–111.6%
- 1–29.5%
- 0–39.4%
- 1–18.6%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 12.5%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.95 (model 53.5% vs market 48.0%, edge +5.5 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.95 | 48.0% | 53.5% | 1.87 | +5.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 3.30 | 28.5% | 29.1% | 3.44 | +0.6 |
| Match result | Draw | 5.00 | 17.8% | 18.0% | 5.56 | +0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.15 | 81.8% | 82.0% | 1.22 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Home | 8.00 | 11.1% | 11.1% | 9.01 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Away | 1.25 | 71.1% | 70.9% | 1.41 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.05 | 89.6% | 88.9% | 1.12 | -0.7 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.80 | 52.0% | 46.5% | 2.15 | -5.5 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Hapoel Petah Tikva
- 2026-10-17T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Bnei Sakhnin · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Maccabi Netanya · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-18T12:45:00.000Z · A vs Hapoel Tel Aviv · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Hapoel Beer Sheva · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Maccabi Haifa · 1-2 (L)
Beitar Jerusalem
- 2026-09-19T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Hapoel Haifa · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-15T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Maccabi Petah Tikva · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-07T17:15:00.000Z · A vs Bnei Sakhnin · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-03T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Hapoel Tel Aviv · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-29T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Maccabi Netanya · 1-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Ligat Ha'al table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maccabi Tel Aviv | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 16 | 20 |
| 2 | Hapoel Tel Aviv | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 19 |
| 3 | Maccabi Haifa | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 18 |
| 4 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| 5 | Beitar Jerusalem | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 16 |
| 6 | Bnei Sakhnin | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 7 | Maccabi Netanya | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 8 | Maccabi Petah Tikva | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -4 | 9 |
| 9 | Hapoel Haifa | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 9 |
| 10 | Hapoel Katamon | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 7 |
| 11 | Hapoel Ramat Gan | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -8 | 6 |
| 12 | Hapoel Petah Tikva | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 4 |
| 13 | Ironi Kiryat Shmona | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | -10 | 3 |
| 14 | Ironi Tiberias | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Beitar Jerusalem win, at 70.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.