HaMoshava Stadium · Referee D. Fuxman · Analysis updated 07:02 UTC
Hapoel Petah Tikva vs Hapoel Katamon Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.32 expected goals for Hapoel Petah Tikva and 1.53 for Hapoel Katamon, a combined total of 2.86. That distribution gives Hapoel Katamon the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
67.1% probability
Expected goals
1.32 – 1.53
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Hapoel Petah Tikva home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Hapoel Katamon away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
58%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
67%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.7%
- 1–28.9%
- 0–18.8%
- 2–17.7%
- 1–07.6%
Recent form
Hapoel Petah Tikva
- 2026-10-17T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Bnei Sakhnin · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Maccabi Netanya · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-18T12:45:00.000Z · A vs Hapoel Tel Aviv · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Hapoel Beer Sheva · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Maccabi Haifa · 1-2 (L)
Hapoel Katamon
- 2026-10-24T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Hapoel Tel Aviv · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-18T17:15:00.000Z · A vs Hapoel Beer Sheva · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-12T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Maccabi Haifa · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-19T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Maccabi Petah Tikva · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-15T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Ironi Tiberias · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-29T17:00:00.000Z · Hapoel Petah Tikva 1-0 Hapoel Katamon (Ligat Ha'al)
- 2026-08-09T17:00:00.000Z · Hapoel Petah Tikva 1-3 Hapoel Katamon (Toto Cup Ligat Al)
- 2026-01-23T12:00:00.000Z · Hapoel Petah Tikva 1-2 Hapoel Katamon (Ligat Ha'al)
- 2025-10-18T16:15:00.000Z · Hapoel Petah Tikva 0-0 Hapoel Katamon (Ligat Ha'al)
- 2025-07-26T17:30:00.000Z · Hapoel Petah Tikva 0-1 Hapoel Katamon (Toto Cup Ligat Al)
- 2024-05-04T17:00:00.000Z · Hapoel Petah Tikva 1-0 Hapoel Katamon (Ligat Ha'al)
- 2024-03-16T13:00:00.000Z · Hapoel Petah Tikva 2-3 Hapoel Katamon (Ligat Ha'al)
- 2023-12-30T13:00:00.000Z · Hapoel Petah Tikva 1-2 Hapoel Katamon (Ligat Ha'al)
- 2023-08-01T17:00:00.000Z · Hapoel Petah Tikva 1-5 Hapoel Katamon (Toto Cup Ligat Al)
- 2021-01-07T12:00:00.000Z · Hapoel Petah Tikva 0-1 Hapoel Katamon (Liga Leumit)
Ligat Ha'al table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maccabi Tel Aviv | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 16 | 20 |
| 2 | Hapoel Tel Aviv | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 19 |
| 3 | Maccabi Haifa | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 18 |
| 4 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| 5 | Beitar Jerusalem | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 16 |
| 6 | Bnei Sakhnin | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 7 | Maccabi Netanya | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 8 | Maccabi Petah Tikva | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -4 | 9 |
| 9 | Hapoel Haifa | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 9 |
| 10 | Hapoel Katamon | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 7 |
| 11 | Hapoel Ramat Gan | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -8 | 6 |
| 12 | Hapoel Petah Tikva | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 4 |
| 13 | Ironi Kiryat Shmona | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | -10 | 3 |
| 14 | Ironi Tiberias | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 67.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.