HaMoshava Stadium · Analysis updated 13:27 UTC
Hapoel Petah Tikva vs Maccabi Netanya Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.90 expected goals for Hapoel Petah Tikva and 1.45 for Maccabi Netanya, a combined total of 2.35. That distribution gives Maccabi Netanya the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Maccabi Netanya win
49.9% probability
Expected goals
0.90 – 1.45
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Hapoel Petah Tikva home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Maccabi Netanya away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
50%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
77%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.8%
- 1–112.4%
- 0–210.0%
- 0–09.5%
- 1–29.0%
Recent form
Hapoel Petah Tikva
- 2026-10-17T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Bnei Sakhnin · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Maccabi Netanya · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-18T12:45:00.000Z · A vs Hapoel Tel Aviv · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Hapoel Beer Sheva · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Maccabi Haifa · 1-2 (L)
Maccabi Netanya
- 2026-10-24T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Ironi Tiberias · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-17T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Ironi Kiryat Shmona · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Hapoel Petah Tikva · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Maccabi Tel Aviv · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-14T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Hapoel Ramat Gan · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-10-10T16:15:00.000Z · Hapoel Petah Tikva 1-1 Maccabi Netanya (Ligat Ha'al)
- 2026-08-05T16:45:00.000Z · Hapoel Petah Tikva 0-2 Maccabi Netanya (Toto Cup Ligat Al)
- 2025-12-31T17:30:00.000Z · Hapoel Petah Tikva 2-0 Maccabi Netanya (Ligat Ha'al)
- 2025-09-13T16:45:00.000Z · Hapoel Petah Tikva 3-1 Maccabi Netanya (Ligat Ha'al)
- 2025-07-29T16:45:00.000Z · Hapoel Petah Tikva 2-3 Maccabi Netanya (Toto Cup Ligat Al)
- 2024-05-19T17:00:00.000Z · Hapoel Petah Tikva 1-3 Maccabi Netanya (Ligat Ha'al)
- 2024-01-13T16:00:00.000Z · Hapoel Petah Tikva 2-0 Maccabi Netanya (Ligat Ha'al)
- 2023-09-17T17:00:00.000Z · Hapoel Petah Tikva 1-4 Maccabi Netanya (Ligat Ha'al)
- 2021-12-16T18:00:00.000Z · Hapoel Petah Tikva 0-1 Maccabi Netanya (State Cup)
- 2017-05-08T16:00:00.000Z · Hapoel Petah Tikva 1-1 Maccabi Netanya (Liga Leumit)
Ligat Ha'al table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maccabi Tel Aviv | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 16 | 20 |
| 2 | Hapoel Tel Aviv | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 19 |
| 3 | Maccabi Haifa | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 18 |
| 4 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| 5 | Beitar Jerusalem | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 16 |
| 6 | Bnei Sakhnin | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 7 | Maccabi Netanya | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 8 | Maccabi Petah Tikva | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -4 | 9 |
| 9 | Hapoel Haifa | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 9 |
| 10 | Hapoel Katamon | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 7 |
| 11 | Hapoel Ramat Gan | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -8 | 6 |
| 12 | Hapoel Petah Tikva | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 4 |
| 13 | Ironi Kiryat Shmona | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | -10 | 3 |
| 14 | Ironi Tiberias | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Maccabi Netanya win, at 49.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.