Estadio Universitario BUAP · Referee O. Biran · Analysis updated 06:53 UTC
Hapoel Ramat Gan vs Hapoel Petah Tikva Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.14 expected goals for Hapoel Ramat Gan and 1.13 for Hapoel Petah Tikva, a combined total of 3.27. That distribution gives Hapoel Ramat Gan the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Hapoel Ramat Gan win
60.5% probability
Expected goals
2.14 – 1.13
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Hapoel Ramat Gan home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Hapoel Petah Tikva away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Hapoel Ramat Gan to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 61% / 20% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.14 goals for Hapoel Ramat Gan and 1.13 for Hapoel Petah Tikva, a combined 3.27 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
40%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.8%
- 1–19.2%
- 2–08.7%
- 1–08.2%
- 3–17.0%
Recent form
Hapoel Ramat Gan
- 2026-10-24T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Maccabi Petah Tikva · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-17T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Hapoel Haifa · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T17:15:00.000Z · H vs Beitar Jerusalem · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-19T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Bnei Sakhnin · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-14T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Maccabi Netanya · 2-0 (W)
Hapoel Petah Tikva
- 2026-10-17T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Bnei Sakhnin · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Maccabi Netanya · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-18T12:45:00.000Z · A vs Hapoel Tel Aviv · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Hapoel Beer Sheva · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Maccabi Haifa · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Toto Cup Ligat Al table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hapoel Haifa | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 12 |
| 2 | Ironi Kiryat Shmona | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 12 |
| 3 | Hapoel Katamon | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 4 | Maccabi Netanya | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 9 |
| 5 | Hapoel Ramat Gan | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 |
| 6 | Maccabi Petah Tikva | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 7 | Maccabi Haifa | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 8 | Hapoel Tel Aviv | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 9 | Maccabi Tel Aviv | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 10 | Bnei Sakhnin | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -3 | 3 |
| 11 | Hapoel Petah Tikva | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -5 | 3 |
| 12 | Ironi Tiberias | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -7 | 3 |
| 13 | Beitar Jerusalem | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 14 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Hapoel Ramat Gan win, at 60.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.