· Analysis updated 04:22 UTC
Hapoel Rishon LeZion vs Hapoel Kfar Shalem Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.96 expected goals for Hapoel Rishon LeZion and 1.64 for Hapoel Kfar Shalem, a combined total of 3.60. That distribution gives Hapoel Rishon LeZion the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 70% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Hapoel Rishon LeZion win
45.7% probability
Expected goals
1.96 – 1.64
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Hapoel Rishon LeZion home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Hapoel Kfar Shalem away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 9 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–18.8%
- 2–18.6%
- 1–27.2%
- 2–27.1%
- 3–15.6%
Recent form
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
- 2026-10-01T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Hapoel Afula · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-24T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Maccabi Ahi Nazareth · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-17T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Ashdod · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-10T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Kiryat Yam SC · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-07T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Bnei Yehuda · 0-0 (D)
Hapoel Kfar Shalem
- 2026-10-23T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Hapoel Rishon LeZion · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Hapoel Acre · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-10-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Hapoel Ra'anana · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-01T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Maccabi Bnei Raina · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-28T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-25T16:00:00.000Z · Hapoel Rishon LeZion 2-6 Hapoel Kfar Shalem (Liga Leumit)
- 2026-02-13T13:00:00.000Z · Hapoel Rishon LeZion 3-2 Hapoel Kfar Shalem (Liga Leumit)
- 2025-10-12T16:00:00.000Z · Hapoel Rishon LeZion 0-1 Hapoel Kfar Shalem (Liga Leumit)
- 2025-05-16T13:00:00.000Z · Hapoel Rishon LeZion 1-1 Hapoel Kfar Shalem (Liga Leumit)
- 2025-03-24T17:00:00.000Z · Hapoel Rishon LeZion 1-2 Hapoel Kfar Shalem (Liga Leumit)
- 2024-12-09T17:00:00.000Z · Hapoel Rishon LeZion 1-4 Hapoel Kfar Shalem (Liga Leumit)
- 2024-07-18T15:00:00.000Z · Hapoel Rishon LeZion 3-1 Hapoel Kfar Shalem (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2022-05-11T16:40:00.000Z · Hapoel Rishon LeZion 3-1 Hapoel Kfar Shalem (Liga Leumit)
- 2020-12-25T13:00:00.000Z · Hapoel Rishon LeZion 3-2 Hapoel Kfar Shalem (Liga Leumit)
- 2020-11-10T17:45:00.000Z · Hapoel Rishon LeZion 1-1 Hapoel Kfar Shalem (Liga Leumit)
Liga Leumit table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ashdod | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 28 |
| 2 | Bnei Yehuda | 11 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 17 | 27 |
| 3 | Hapoel Kfar Shalem | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 23 |
| 4 | Hapoel Rishon LeZion | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 21 |
| 5 | Hapoel Ra'anana | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 19 |
| 6 | Kiryat Yam SC | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 19 |
| 7 | Hapoel Afula | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 18 |
| 8 | Maccabi Bnei Raina | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 17 |
| 9 | Kafr Qasim | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 13 |
| 10 | Hapoel Kfar Saba | 11 | 4 | 0 | 7 | -7 | 12 |
| 11 | Maccabi Kiryat Gat | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -2 | 11 |
| 12 | Maccabi Ahi Nazareth | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -7 | 11 |
| 13 | Ironi Modi'in | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 11 |
| 14 | Maccabi Herzliya | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -5 | 9 |
| 15 | Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa | 11 | 3 | 0 | 8 | -14 | 9 |
| 16 | Hapoel Acre | 11 | 0 | 1 | 10 | -28 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Hapoel Rishon LeZion win, at 45.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 70%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.