· Analysis updated 20:19 UTC
Hapoel Rishon LeZion vs Hapoel Petah Tikva Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.76 expected goals for Hapoel Rishon LeZion and 0.87 for Hapoel Petah Tikva, a combined total of 2.63. That distribution gives Hapoel Rishon LeZion the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Hapoel Rishon LeZion win
58.4% probability
Expected goals
1.76 – 0.87
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Hapoel Rishon LeZion home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Hapoel Petah Tikva away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Hapoel Rishon LeZion to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 58% / 23% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.76 goals for Hapoel Rishon LeZion and 0.87 for Hapoel Petah Tikva, a combined 2.63 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
42%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.6%
- 2–011.1%
- 1–111.0%
- 2–19.7%
- 0–07.2%
Recent form
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
- 2026-10-01T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Hapoel Afula · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-24T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Maccabi Ahi Nazareth · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-17T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Ashdod · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-10T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Kiryat Yam SC · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-07T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Bnei Yehuda · 0-0 (D)
Hapoel Petah Tikva
- 2026-10-17T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Bnei Sakhnin · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Maccabi Netanya · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-18T12:45:00.000Z · A vs Hapoel Tel Aviv · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Hapoel Beer Sheva · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Maccabi Haifa · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Hapoel Rishon LeZion win, at 58.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.