· Analysis updated 16:28 UTC
Hapoel Rishon LeZion vs Kiryat Yam SC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.88 expected goals for Hapoel Rishon LeZion and 2.08 for Kiryat Yam SC, a combined total of 3.95. That distribution gives Kiryat Yam SC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 75% for over 2.5 goals and 74% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
64.3% probability
Expected goals
1.88 – 2.08
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Hapoel Rishon LeZion home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Kiryat Yam SC away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Kiryat Yam SC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 36% / 21% / 44% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.88 goals for Hapoel Rishon LeZion and 2.08 for Kiryat Yam SC, a combined 3.95 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
57%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
64%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–27.8%
- 1–17.5%
- 2–27.3%
- 2–17.0%
- 1–35.4%
Recent form
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
- 2026-10-23T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Hapoel Kfar Shalem · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Maccabi Bnei Raina · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-01T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Hapoel Afula · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-24T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Maccabi Ahi Nazareth · 1-0 (W)
Kiryat Yam SC
- 2026-10-23T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Bnei Yehuda · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-10-16T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Kafr Qasim · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-09T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Maccabi Kiryat Gat · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-01T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Hapoel Kfar Saba · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-24T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Maccabi Herzliya · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-10T16:00:00.000Z · Hapoel Rishon LeZion 4-2 Kiryat Yam SC (Liga Leumit)
- 2026-05-05T16:00:00.000Z · Hapoel Rishon LeZion 1-2 Kiryat Yam SC (Liga Leumit)
- 2026-01-23T13:00:00.000Z · Hapoel Rishon LeZion 0-2 Kiryat Yam SC (Liga Leumit)
- 2025-09-21T16:00:00.000Z · Hapoel Rishon LeZion 0-2 Kiryat Yam SC (Liga Leumit)
Liga Leumit table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ashdod | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 28 |
| 2 | Bnei Yehuda | 11 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 17 | 27 |
| 3 | Hapoel Kfar Shalem | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 23 |
| 4 | Hapoel Rishon LeZion | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 21 |
| 5 | Hapoel Ra'anana | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 19 |
| 6 | Kiryat Yam SC | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 19 |
| 7 | Hapoel Afula | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 18 |
| 8 | Maccabi Bnei Raina | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 17 |
| 9 | Kafr Qasim | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 13 |
| 10 | Hapoel Kfar Saba | 11 | 4 | 0 | 7 | -7 | 12 |
| 11 | Maccabi Kiryat Gat | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -2 | 11 |
| 12 | Maccabi Ahi Nazareth | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -7 | 11 |
| 13 | Ironi Modi'in | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 11 |
| 14 | Maccabi Herzliya | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -5 | 9 |
| 15 | Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa | 11 | 3 | 0 | 8 | -14 | 9 |
| 16 | Hapoel Acre | 11 | 0 | 1 | 10 | -28 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 64.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 74% and over 2.5 goals at 75%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.