Hapoel Tel Aviv vs Atalanta Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Hapoel Tel Aviv and 0.99 for Atalanta, a combined total of 2.47. That distribution gives Hapoel Tel Aviv the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 45% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Hapoel Tel Aviv win

48.6% probability

Low confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

1.48 – 0.99

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Hapoel Tel Aviv home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Atalanta away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Hapoel Tel Aviv to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 26% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for Hapoel Tel Aviv and 0.99 for Atalanta, a combined 2.47 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Hapoel Tel Aviv win49%

Draw26%

Atalanta win25%

Double chance 1X

75%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

51%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals71%

Over 2.5 goals45%

Over 3.5 goals24%

Both teams to score49%

Correct score

1–012.5%
1–112.4%
2–09.3%
2–19.2%
0–08.4%

Recent form

Hapoel Tel Aviv

2026-09-18T12:45:00.000Z · H vs Hapoel Petah Tikva · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-14T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Maccabi Tel Aviv · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-07T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Hapoel Ramat Gan · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-03T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Beitar Jerusalem · 3-0 (W)
2026-08-30T17:15:00.000Z · A vs Hapoel Haifa · 0-0 (D)

Atalanta

2026-10-12T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Venezia · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Juventus · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-12T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Cagliari · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-05T18:45:00.000Z · A vs AS Roma · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-31T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Bologna · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-08-27T18:00:00.000Z · Hapoel Tel Aviv 0-1 Atalanta (UEFA Europa Conference League)
2026-08-20T18:30:00.000Z · Hapoel Tel Aviv 0-0 Atalanta (UEFA Europa Conference League)

UEFA Europa Conference League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Mjallby AIF	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Brighton	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Monaco	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	FK Jablonec	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Gent	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	St. Truiden	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	SC Freiburg	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Atalanta	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Ajax	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Twente	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Getafe	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	KuPS	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	CSKA Sofia	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	HNK Hajduk Split	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Pafos	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Aarhus	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	FC Copenhagen	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	FC Midtjylland	0	0	0	0	0	0
19	FC Nordsjaelland	0	0	0	0	0	0
20	Panathinaikos	0	0	0	0	0	0
21	Brann	0	0	0	0	0	0
22	SC Braga	0	0	0	0	0	0
23	Heart Of Midlothian	0	0	0	0	0	0
24	FC Lugano	0	0	0	0	0	0
25	FK Crvena Zvezda	0	0	0	0	0	0
26	FC Thun	0	0	0	0	0	0
27	Trabzonspor	0	0	0	0	0	0
28	Borac Banja Luka	0	0	0	0	0	0
29	Kairat Almaty	0	0	0	0	0	0
30	Egnatia Rrogozhinë	0	0	0	0	0	0
31	Inter Club d'Escaldes	0	0	0	0	0	0
32	Kauno Žalgiris	0	0	0	0	0	0
33	Universitatea Craiova	0	0	0	0	0	0
34	FC Iberia 1999	0	0	0	0	0	0
35	Lincoln Red Imps FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
36	Riga	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Hapoel Tel Aviv win, at 48.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 45%.

A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.