Bloomfield Stadium · Analysis updated 14:51 UTC
Hapoel Tel Aviv vs Beitar Jerusalem Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.18 expected goals for Hapoel Tel Aviv and 1.17 for Beitar Jerusalem, a combined total of 3.35. That distribution gives Hapoel Tel Aviv the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Hapoel Tel Aviv win
60.2% probability
Expected goals
2.18 – 1.17
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Hapoel Tel Aviv home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Beitar Jerusalem away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
40%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.8%
- 1–19.0%
- 2–08.3%
- 1–07.6%
- 3–17.1%
Recent form
Hapoel Tel Aviv
- 2026-09-18T12:45:00.000Z · H vs Hapoel Petah Tikva · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-14T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Maccabi Tel Aviv · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-07T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Hapoel Ramat Gan · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-03T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Beitar Jerusalem · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T17:15:00.000Z · A vs Hapoel Haifa · 0-0 (D)
Beitar Jerusalem
- 2026-09-19T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Hapoel Haifa · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-15T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Maccabi Petah Tikva · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-07T17:15:00.000Z · A vs Bnei Sakhnin · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-03T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Hapoel Tel Aviv · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-29T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Maccabi Netanya · 1-4 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-03T17:30:00.000Z · Hapoel Tel Aviv 3-0 Beitar Jerusalem (Ligat Ha'al)
- 2026-07-18T17:30:00.000Z · Hapoel Tel Aviv 2-2 Beitar Jerusalem (Toto Cup Ligat Al)
- 2026-05-23T18:00:00.000Z · Hapoel Tel Aviv 1-1 Beitar Jerusalem (Ligat Ha'al)
- 2026-05-06T16:30:00.000Z · Hapoel Tel Aviv 0-1 Beitar Jerusalem (Ligat Ha'al)
- 2026-01-01T18:30:00.000Z · Hapoel Tel Aviv 0-1 Beitar Jerusalem (Ligat Ha'al)
- 2025-10-28T18:30:00.000Z · Hapoel Tel Aviv 1-2 Beitar Jerusalem (Toto Cup Ligat Al)
- 2025-09-15T17:30:00.000Z · Hapoel Tel Aviv 3-2 Beitar Jerusalem (Ligat Ha'al)
- 2024-04-27T17:00:00.000Z · Hapoel Tel Aviv 1-5 Beitar Jerusalem (Ligat Ha'al)
- 2024-01-22T18:00:00.000Z · Hapoel Tel Aviv 0-1 Beitar Jerusalem (Ligat Ha'al)
- 2023-10-02T17:30:00.000Z · Hapoel Tel Aviv 3-0 Beitar Jerusalem (Ligat Ha'al)
Ligat Ha'al table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maccabi Tel Aviv | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 16 |
| 2 | Maccabi Haifa | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 15 |
| 3 | Hapoel Tel Aviv | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 13 |
| 4 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 5 | Beitar Jerusalem | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| 6 | Hapoel Haifa | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| 7 | Hapoel Katamon | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 8 | Maccabi Netanya | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| 9 | Maccabi Petah Tikva | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 6 |
| 10 | Bnei Sakhnin | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 |
| 11 | Hapoel Petah Tikva | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 12 | Ironi Kiryat Shmona | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -8 | 3 |
| 13 | Hapoel Ramat Gan | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -9 | 3 |
| 14 | Ironi Tiberias | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Hapoel Tel Aviv win, at 60.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.
A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.