Hapoel Tel Aviv vs GKS Katowice Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.75 expected goals for Hapoel Tel Aviv and 1.50 for GKS Katowice, a combined total of 3.25. That distribution gives Hapoel Tel Aviv the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

66.8% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.75 – 1.50

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Hapoel Tel Aviv home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
GKS Katowice away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Hapoel Tel Aviv to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 23% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.75 goals for Hapoel Tel Aviv and 1.50 for GKS Katowice, a combined 3.25 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Hapoel Tel Aviv win44%

Draw23%

GKS Katowice win33%

Double chance 1X

67%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

56%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals84%

Over 2.5 goals63%

Over 3.5 goals41%

Both teams to score64%

Correct score

1–110.2%
2–18.9%
1–27.6%
1–06.8%
2–26.7%

Recent form

Hapoel Tel Aviv

2026-10-17T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Ironi Tiberias · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-10T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Ironi Kiryat Shmona · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-18T12:45:00.000Z · H vs Hapoel Petah Tikva · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-14T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Maccabi Tel Aviv · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-07T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Hapoel Ramat Gan · 4-0 (W)

GKS Katowice

2026-10-09T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Raków Częstochowa · 4-1 (W)
2026-10-03T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Baník Ostrava · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-19T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Cracovia Krakow · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-12T18:15:00.000Z · A vs Zaglebie Lubin · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-04T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Piast Gliwice · 0-3 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

UEFA Europa Conference League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Panathinaikos	2	2	0	0	5	6
2	FC Lugano	2	2	0	0	4	6
3	Brann	2	2	0	0	4	6
4	Trabzonspor	2	2	0	0	4	6
5	Twente	2	2	0	0	4	6
6	Monaco	2	2	0	0	4	6
7	St. Truiden	2	2	0	0	3	6
8	HNK Hajduk Split	2	2	0	0	2	6
9	Brighton	2	1	1	0	4	4
10	FC Copenhagen	2	1	1	0	3	4
11	Universitatea Craiova	2	1	1	0	2	4
12	Mjallby AIF	2	1	1	0	2	4
13	Ajax	2	1	0	1	1	3
14	Borac Banja Luka	2	1	0	1	1	3
15	Atalanta	2	1	0	1	0	3
16	SC Braga	2	1	0	1	-1	3
17	Gent	2	1	0	1	-1	3
18	SC Freiburg	2	1	0	1	-2	3
19	FC Nordsjaelland	2	0	2	0	0	2
20	Egnatia Rrogozhinë	2	0	2	0	0	2
21	Riga	2	0	2	0	0	2
22	FK Crvena Zvezda	2	0	1	1	-1	1
23	CSKA Sofia	2	0	1	1	-1	1
24	FK Jablonec	2	0	1	1	-1	1
25	FC Midtjylland	2	0	1	1	-1	1
26	Aarhus	2	0	1	1	-1	1
27	Pafos	2	0	1	1	-2	1
28	Heart Of Midlothian	2	0	1	1	-2	1
29	FC Iberia 1999	2	0	1	1	-2	1
30	Getafe	2	0	1	1	-3	1
31	Kairat Almaty	2	0	1	1	-4	1
32	FC Thun	2	0	0	2	-2	0
33	Lincoln Red Imps FC	2	0	0	2	-4	0
34	KuPS	2	0	0	2	-4	0
35	Inter Club d'Escaldes	2	0	0	2	-4	0
36	Kauno Žalgiris	2	0	0	2	-7	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.

A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.