Hapoel Tel Aviv vs Ludogorets Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.53 expected goals for Hapoel Tel Aviv and 1.41 for Ludogorets, a combined total of 2.94. That distribution gives Hapoel Tel Aviv the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

64.9% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

1.53 – 1.41

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Hapoel Tel Aviv home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Hapoel Tel Aviv to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 25% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.53 goals for Hapoel Tel Aviv and 1.41 for Ludogorets, a combined 2.94 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 56% and both teams to score at 59%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.

Match result (1X2)

Hapoel Tel Aviv win40%

Draw25%

Ludogorets win35%

Double chance 1X

65%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

60%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals79%

Over 2.5 goals56%

Over 3.5 goals34%

Both teams to score59%

Correct score

1–111.4%
2–18.7%
1–08.1%
1–28.0%
0–17.4%

Recent form

Hapoel Tel Aviv

2026-10-24T15:45:00.000Z · A vs Hapoel Katamon · 3-0 (W)
2026-10-17T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Ironi Tiberias · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-10T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Ironi Kiryat Shmona · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-18T12:45:00.000Z · H vs Hapoel Petah Tikva · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-14T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Maccabi Tel Aviv · 1-4 (L)

Ludogorets

2026-10-12T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Arda Kardzhali · 5-0 (W)
2026-10-04T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Cherno More Varna · 5-0 (W)
2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs CSM Ramnicu Valcea · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-14T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Septemvri Sofia · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-06T18:15:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotiv Sofia · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

UEFA Europa Conference League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Panathinaikos	2	2	0	0	5	6
2	FC Lugano	2	2	0	0	4	6
3	Brann	2	2	0	0	4	6
4	Trabzonspor	2	2	0	0	4	6
5	Twente	2	2	0	0	4	6
6	Monaco	2	2	0	0	4	6
7	St. Truiden	2	2	0	0	3	6
8	HNK Hajduk Split	2	2	0	0	2	6
9	Brighton	2	1	1	0	4	4
10	FC Copenhagen	2	1	1	0	3	4
11	Universitatea Craiova	2	1	1	0	2	4
12	Mjallby AIF	2	1	1	0	2	4
13	Ajax	2	1	0	1	1	3
14	Borac Banja Luka	2	1	0	1	1	3
15	Atalanta	2	1	0	1	0	3
16	SC Braga	2	1	0	1	-1	3
17	Gent	2	1	0	1	-1	3
18	SC Freiburg	2	1	0	1	-2	3
19	FC Nordsjaelland	2	0	2	0	0	2
20	Egnatia Rrogozhinë	2	0	2	0	0	2
21	Riga	2	0	2	0	0	2
22	FK Crvena Zvezda	2	0	1	1	-1	1
23	CSKA Sofia	2	0	1	1	-1	1
24	FK Jablonec	2	0	1	1	-1	1
25	FC Midtjylland	2	0	1	1	-1	1
26	Aarhus	2	0	1	1	-1	1
27	Pafos	2	0	1	1	-2	1
28	Heart Of Midlothian	2	0	1	1	-2	1
29	FC Iberia 1999	2	0	1	1	-2	1
30	Getafe	2	0	1	1	-3	1
31	Kairat Almaty	2	0	1	1	-4	1
32	FC Thun	2	0	0	2	-2	0
33	Lincoln Red Imps FC	2	0	0	2	-4	0
34	KuPS	2	0	0	2	-4	0
35	Inter Club d'Escaldes	2	0	0	2	-4	0
36	Kauno Žalgiris	2	0	0	2	-7	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 64.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.

A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.