· Analysis updated 16:31 UTC
Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel vs Beitar Nahariya Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.85 expected goals for Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel and 1.87 for Beitar Nahariya, a combined total of 2.72. That distribution gives Beitar Nahariya the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Beitar Nahariya win
61.3% probability
Expected goals
0.85 – 1.87
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Beitar Nahariya away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Beitar Nahariya to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 17% / 22% / 61% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.85 goals for Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel and 1.87 for Beitar Nahariya, a combined 2.72 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 51% and both teams to score at 49%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
39%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
83%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–112.3%
- 0–211.5%
- 1–110.5%
- 1–29.8%
- 0–37.1%
Recent form
Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel
- 2026-09-23T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Ironi Baka El Garbiya · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-18T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Tzeirey Tamra · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-09T14:10:00.000Z · A vs Hapoel Nazareth Illit · 0-1 (L)
Beitar Nahariya
- 2026-10-23T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Hapoel Beit Shean · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-19T18:15:00.000Z · A vs Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-10-12T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Hapoel Yarka · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-09T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Hapoel Umm al-Fahm · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-30T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Ironi Nesher · 1-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga Alef table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tira | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 20 |
| 2 | Ironi Nesher | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 19 |
| 3 | Shimshon Tel Aviv | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 19 |
| 4 | Dimona | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 18 |
| 5 | Holon Yermiyahu | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 16 |
| 6 | Beitar Nahariya | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 16 |
| 7 | Maccabi Kiryat Malachi | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 15 |
| 8 | Hapoel Hadera | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 15 |
| 9 | Hapoel Ramat HaSharon | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 15 |
| 10 | Hapoel Ironi Karmiel | 8 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 14 |
| 11 | Hapoel Herzliya | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 13 |
| 12 | Hapoel Migdal HaEmek | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12 |
| 13 | Hapoel Nazareth Illit | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 12 |
| 14 | Hapoel Beit Shean | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 11 |
| 15 | Hapoel Sderot | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 11 |
| 16 | Hapoel Azor | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 17 | Ironi Beit Shemesh | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 18 | FC Jerusalem | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 11 |
| 19 | Maccabi Yavne | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 10 |
| 20 | Hapoel Umm al-Fahm | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 21 | Maccabi Ashdod | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 22 | Maccabi K. Ata Bialik | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 10 |
| 23 | Hapoel Marmorek | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 9 |
| 24 | Maccabi Neve Sha'anan | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 25 | Hapoel Ihud Bnei Jatt | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 26 | Ironi Baka El Garbiya | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 8 |
| 27 | Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 7 |
| 28 | Hapoel Bnei Musmus | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 29 | Hapoel Mahane Yehuda | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 30 | Tzeirey Tamra | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -10 | 6 |
| 31 | Hapoel Ironi Arraba | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -15 | 5 |
| 32 | Kfar Saba 1928 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -6 | 4 |
| 33 | Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -11 | 4 |
| 34 | Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -4 | 3 |
| 35 | Tzeirey Tira | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | -15 | 0 |
| 36 | Nordia Jerusalem | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | -22 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Beitar Nahariya win, at 61.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.