Harras El Hodood Stadium · Referee T. Magdy · Analysis updated 06:22 UTC
Haras El Hodood vs El Mokawloon Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.75 expected goals for Haras El Hodood and 1.08 for El Mokawloon, a combined total of 1.83. That distribution gives El Mokawloon the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 32%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 28% for over 2.5 goals and 35% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
74.8% probability
Expected goals
0.75 – 1.08
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Haras El Hodood home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
El Mokawloon away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 1 of the last 7 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
57%
Double chance 12
68%
Double chance X2
75%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–117.3%
- 0–016.1%
- 1–113.0%
- 1–012.1%
- 0–29.3%
Recent form
Haras El Hodood
- 2026-10-23T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Proxy · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-15T12:30:00.000Z · A vs La Viena FC · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-08T12:30:00.000Z · H vs El Seka El Hadid · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-02T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Tanta SC · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-25T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Dayrout · 0-0 (D)
El Mokawloon
- 2026-09-15T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Wadi Degla · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-09T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Ahly · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-02T14:00:00.000Z · A vs El Gouna FC · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-27T17:00:00.000Z · H vs AL Masry · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-22T14:00:00.000Z · A vs El Geish · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-13T14:00:00.000Z · Haras El Hodood 0-0 El Mokawloon (Premier League)
- 2025-08-21T15:00:00.000Z · Haras El Hodood 0-0 El Mokawloon (Premier League)
- 2023-05-16T14:00:00.000Z · Haras El Hodood 0-2 El Mokawloon (Premier League)
- 2023-03-19T15:00:00.000Z · Haras El Hodood 0-0 El Mokawloon (League Cup)
- 2023-01-03T12:45:00.000Z · Haras El Hodood 2-3 El Mokawloon (Premier League)
- 2019-04-11T18:00:00.000Z · Haras El Hodood 0-1 El Mokawloon (Premier League)
- 2018-11-01T13:00:00.000Z · Haras El Hodood 0-0 El Mokawloon (Premier League)
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pyramids FC | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 18 |
| 2 | Al Ahly | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 16 |
| 3 | Zamalek SC | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| 4 | Future FC | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 5 | Al Ittihad | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 6 | Ceramica Cleopatra | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 12 |
| 7 | National Bank of Egypt | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 8 | El Mokawloon | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 9 | Petrojet | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 10 | Masr | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 8 |
| 11 | Olympic El Qanah | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 12 | AL Masry | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 13 | Smouha SC | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 14 | El Geish | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 15 | Wadi Degla | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 6 |
| 16 | Asyut Petrol | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 |
| 17 | Enppi | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 18 | Abu Qair Semad | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -8 | 3 |
| 19 | El Gouna FC | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 2 |
| 20 | Ghazl El Mehalla | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 74.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 35% and over 2.5 goals at 28%.
A 75% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.