Hard vs Dornbirner SV Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.23 expected goals for Hard and 1.43 for Dornbirner SV, a combined total of 2.65. That distribution gives Dornbirner SV the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

67.6% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.23 – 1.43

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Dornbirner SV away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Dornbirner SV to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 32% / 26% / 42% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.23 goals for Hard and 1.43 for Dornbirner SV, a combined 2.65 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 50% and both teams to score at 54%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.

Match result (1X2)

Hard win32%

Draw26%

Dornbirner SV win42%

Double chance 1X

58%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

68%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals74%

Over 2.5 goals50%

Over 3.5 goals28%

Both teams to score54%

Correct score

1–112.3%
0–110.0%
1–28.8%
1–08.6%
2–17.6%

Recent form

Hard

Dornbirner SV

2026-06-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Egg · 5-2 (W)
2026-06-06T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Göfis · 5-4 (W)
2026-06-04T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Rotenberg · 1-2 (L)
2026-05-30T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Ludesch · 0-1 (L)
2026-05-23T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Admira Dornbirn · 0-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Röthis	25	15	5	5	27	50
2	Wolfurt	25	15	0	10	12	45
3	Lochau	25	14	3	8	11	45
4	FC Egg	24	14	2	8	11	44
5	Admira Dornbirn	25	13	4	8	10	43
6	Dornbirner SV	25	10	7	8	15	37
7	Hard	24	11	2	11	-2	35
8	Ludesch	25	10	4	10	2	34
9	Blau-Weiß Feldkirch	23	9	3	11	-11	30
10	Austria Lustenau II	25	10	2	13	-1	32
11	Rotenberg	26	8	7	11	-3	31
12	Bizau	25	6	7	12	-16	25
13	Nenzing	25	6	4	14	-28	22
14	Göfis	24	3	6	15	-28	15

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 67.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 50%.

A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.