Hardrock vs Manica Diamonds Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.70 expected goals for Hardrock and 0.73 for Manica Diamonds, a combined total of 2.43. That distribution gives Hardrock the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Hardrock win

60.8% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.70 – 0.73

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Hardrock home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Manica Diamonds away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Hardrock to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 61% / 24% / 16% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.70 goals for Hardrock and 0.73 for Manica Diamonds, a combined 2.43 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Hardrock win61%

Draw24%

Manica Diamonds win16%

Double chance 1X

84%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

39%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals70%

Over 2.5 goals44%

Over 3.5 goals23%

Both teams to score42%

Correct score

1–015.0%
2–012.8%
1–110.9%
2–19.3%
0–08.8%

Recent form

Hardrock

2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Bulawayo Chiefs · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Highlanders · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · H vs TelOne · 4-1 (W)
2026-08-22T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Hunters · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-01T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Manica Diamonds · 3-0 (W)

Manica Diamonds

2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Hunters · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Agama · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-23T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Ngezi Platinum · 0-2 (L)
2026-08-01T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Hardrock · 0-3 (L)
2026-07-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Triangle United · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Premier Soccer League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Hardrock	31	20	6	5	35	66
2	Scotland Mabvuku	30	17	10	3	34	61
3	Ngezi Platinum	31	14	13	4	13	55
4	Dynamos	31	12	15	4	17	51
5	CAPS United	31	13	12	6	11	51
6	Herentals	31	14	6	11	2	48
7	MWOS	31	11	12	8	10	45
8	Highlanders	31	9	16	6	4	43
9	Chicken Inn	30	11	9	10	-1	42
10	Platinum	31	8	16	7	-3	40
11	Simba Bhora	31	9	12	10	0	39
12	Hunters	31	7	14	10	-10	35
13	Kariba	31	6	14	11	-9	32
14	Bulawayo Chiefs	31	7	10	14	-12	31
15	Agama	31	7	7	17	-21	28
16	Triangle United	31	5	9	17	-17	24
17	TelOne	31	4	10	17	-23	22
18	Manica Diamonds	31	4	9	18	-30	21

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Hardrock win, at 60.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.

A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.