Forestierstadion · Analysis updated 14:33 UTC
Harelbeke vs Mandel United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.11 expected goals for Harelbeke and 1.76 for Mandel United, a combined total of 2.87. That distribution gives Mandel United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Mandel United win
52.5% probability
Expected goals
1.11 – 1.76
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Harelbeke home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Mandel United away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 1 of the last 7 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
48%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
76%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.1%
- 0–110.0%
- 1–29.7%
- 0–28.8%
- 1–06.3%
Recent form
Harelbeke
- 2026-10-03T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Dessel Sport · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-30T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Hoogstraten · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Merelbeke · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Tienen · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-05T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Heist · 1-2 (L)
Mandel United
- 2026-09-26T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Sporting Hasselt · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Hoogstraten · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Roeselare Daisel · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Lyra-Lierse Berlaar · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-30T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Harelbeke · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-30T13:00:00.000Z · Harelbeke 0-3 Mandel United (First Amateur Division)
- 2026-03-07T19:00:00.000Z · Harelbeke 0-1 Mandel United (Second Amateur Division - VFV A)
- 2025-11-09T14:00:00.000Z · Harelbeke 1-3 Mandel United (Second Amateur Division - VFV A)
- 2024-02-18T14:00:00.000Z · Harelbeke 0-1 Mandel United (Second Amateur Division - VFV A)
- 2023-09-30T18:00:00.000Z · Harelbeke 2-0 Mandel United (Second Amateur Division - VFV A)
- 2019-11-17T14:00:00.000Z · Harelbeke 0-2 Mandel United (Second Amateur Division - VFV A)
- 2018-12-22T18:30:00.000Z · Harelbeke 0-1 Mandel United (Second Amateur Division - VFV A)
First Amateur Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Meux | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 16 |
| 2 | RWDM | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 16 |
| 3 | Rochefort | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 14 |
| 4 | Tubize | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 14 |
| 5 | Union Saint-Gilloise II | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 6 | Albert Quévy-Mons | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 10 |
| 7 | Sporting Charleroi II | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
| 8 | Olympic Charleroi | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -7 | 8 |
| 9 | Standard Liège II | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 7 |
| 10 | Onhaye | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -7 | 6 |
| 11 | Habay-la-Neuve | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 5 |
| 12 | Flénu | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -13 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Mandel United win, at 52.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.