Harksheide vs HEBC Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.58 expected goals for Harksheide and 1.67 for HEBC, a combined total of 3.25. That distribution gives HEBC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

63.7% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.58 – 1.67

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Harksheide home form
2 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
HEBC away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 8 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Harksheide win36%

Draw23%

HEBC win41%

Double chance 1X

60%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

64%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals84%

Over 2.5 goals63%

Over 3.5 goals41%

Both teams to score64%

Correct score

1–110.2%
1–28.6%
2–18.1%
2–26.7%
0–16.5%

Recent form

Harksheide

2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Altona 93 · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-18T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Buchholz · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-11T17:30:00.000Z · A vs ETSV Hamburg · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-04T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Concordia · 1-3 (L)
2026-08-30T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Teutonia Ottensen · 0-0 (D)

HEBC

2026-10-02T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Harksheide · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-27T08:45:00.000Z · H vs Pinneberg · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Altona 93 · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-13T08:45:00.000Z · H vs Victoria Hamburg · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-06T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Buchholz · 2-3 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-04-17T17:30:00.000Z · Harksheide 2-1 HEBC (Oberliga - Hamburg)
2025-10-26T09:45:00.000Z · Harksheide 1-2 HEBC (Oberliga - Hamburg)
2025-04-17T17:00:00.000Z · Harksheide 1-1 HEBC (Oberliga - Hamburg)
2024-09-03T17:00:00.000Z · Harksheide 1-3 HEBC (Oberliga - Hamburg)
2024-03-22T18:30:00.000Z · Harksheide 0-2 HEBC (Oberliga - Hamburg)
2023-10-01T08:45:00.000Z · Harksheide 1-1 HEBC (Oberliga - Hamburg)
2023-04-06T17:30:00.000Z · Harksheide 1-1 HEBC (Oberliga - Hamburg)
2022-10-16T08:45:00.000Z · Harksheide 0-2 HEBC (Oberliga - Hamburg)

Oberliga - Hamburg table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Tus Dassendorf	10	7	2	1	18	23
2	Paloma	10	7	1	2	9	22
3	Victoria Hamburg	10	5	4	1	7	19
4	Altona 93	9	5	2	2	4	17
5	HT16	10	5	1	4	8	16
6	Pinneberg	10	5	1	4	4	16
7	Buchholz	10	4	3	3	-3	15
8	Vorwärts-Wacker 04	10	4	3	3	-4	15
9	Niendorfer TSV	10	4	2	4	-4	14
10	ETSV Hamburg	8	4	1	3	3	13
11	Sasel	10	4	1	5	-3	13
12	Süderelbe	10	3	3	4	1	12
13	HEBC	10	4	0	6	-2	12
14	Nikola Tesla	10	3	2	5	1	11
15	Teutonia Ottensen	10	3	2	5	-3	11
16	Concordia	10	3	2	5	-4	11
17	Harksheide	10	1	4	5	-9	7
18	Norderstedt II	9	0	0	9	-23	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 63.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.

A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.