The Recreation Ground · Analysis updated 14:13 UTC
Harleston Town vs AFC Kempston Rovers Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.74 expected goals for Harleston Town and 1.22 for AFC Kempston Rovers, a combined total of 3.96. That distribution gives Harleston Town the largest share of the 1X2 market at 69%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 75% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 69% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Harleston Town win
69.4% probability
Expected goals
2.74 – 1.22
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Harleston Town home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
AFC Kempston Rovers away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Harleston Town to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 69%, against 69% / 16% / 15% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.74 goals for Harleston Town and 1.22 for AFC Kempston Rovers, a combined 3.96 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
86%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
31%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.7%
- 3–18.0%
- 2–07.2%
- 3–06.5%
- 1–16.4%
Recent form
Harleston Town
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Bedford · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Romford · 3-1 (W)
- 2025-08-02T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Walsham Le Willows · 2-4 (L)
- 2024-09-03T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Biggleswade Town · 1-3 (L)
- 2024-08-31T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Biggleswade Town · 1-1 (D)
AFC Kempston Rovers
- 2025-08-02T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Arlesey Town · 1-5 (L)
- 2024-08-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Brightlingsea Regent · 2-4 (L)
- 2024-04-27T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Hadley · 0-1 (L)
- 2024-04-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Stotfold · 1-4 (L)
- 2024-04-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kings Langley · 2-6 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Harleston Town win, at 69.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 75%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.