The Recreation Ground · Analysis updated 14:13 UTC
Harleston Town vs Biggleswade Town Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.14 expected goals for Harleston Town and 1.26 for Biggleswade Town, a combined total of 3.40. That distribution gives Harleston Town the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Harleston Town win
57.5% probability
Expected goals
2.14 – 1.26
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Harleston Town home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Biggleswade Town away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Harleston Town to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 58% / 21% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.14 goals for Harleston Town and 1.26 for Biggleswade Town, a combined 3.40 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
43%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.6%
- 1–19.0%
- 2–07.7%
- 1–07.2%
- 3–16.9%
Recent form
Harleston Town
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Bedford · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Romford · 3-1 (W)
- 2025-08-02T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Walsham Le Willows · 2-4 (L)
- 2024-09-03T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Biggleswade Town · 1-3 (L)
- 2024-08-31T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Biggleswade Town · 1-1 (D)
Biggleswade Town
- 2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Hitchin Town · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Hitchin Town · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-04-18T14:00:28.000Z · A vs Thame United · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-04-11T14:00:52.000Z · H vs Flackwell Heath · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-04-06T14:00:11.000Z · A vs Milton Keynes Irish · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Harleston Town win, at 57.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.