The Recreation Ground · Analysis updated 13:26 UTC
Harleston Town vs Soham Town Rangers Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.25 expected goals for Harleston Town and 2.00 for Soham Town Rangers, a combined total of 4.25. That distribution gives Harleston Town the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 80% for over 2.5 goals and 77% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
64.6% probability
Expected goals
2.25 – 2.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Harleston Town home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Harleston Town to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 20% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.25 goals for Harleston Town and 2.00 for Soham Town Rangers, a combined 4.25 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 80% and both teams to score at 77%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–17.2%
- 2–27.2%
- 1–16.4%
- 1–26.4%
- 3–15.4%
Recent form
Harleston Town
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Bedford · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Romford · 3-1 (W)
- 2025-08-02T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Walsham Le Willows · 2-4 (L)
- 2024-09-03T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Biggleswade Town · 1-3 (L)
- 2024-08-31T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Biggleswade Town · 1-1 (D)
Soham Town Rangers
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 64.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 77% and over 2.5 goals at 80%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.