· Analysis updated 23:47 UTC
Harlow Town vs Takeley Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.39 expected goals for Harlow Town and 1.68 for Takeley, a combined total of 3.07. That distribution gives Takeley the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
68.1% probability
Expected goals
1.39 – 1.68
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Harlow Town home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Takeley away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Takeley to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 32% / 24% / 44% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.39 goals for Harlow Town and 1.68 for Takeley, a combined 3.07 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
56%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
68%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.8%
- 1–29.1%
- 0–17.8%
- 2–17.5%
- 0–26.5%
Recent form
Harlow Town
- 2026-07-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs St Margaretsbury · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-07-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Colchester · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-07-14T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Woodford Town · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-07-10T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Buckhurst Hill · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-07-07T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Takeley · 3-4 (L)
Takeley
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Hitchin Town · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Aylesbury United · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · A vs London Lions · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-07-07T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Harlow Town · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Wroxham · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 68.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.