Estadio Municipal Luis De La Fuente · Analysis updated 06:46 UTC
Haro Deportivo vs Autol Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.40 expected goals for Haro Deportivo and 0.90 for Autol, a combined total of 3.30. That distribution gives Haro Deportivo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 71%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 71% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Haro Deportivo win
70.5% probability
Expected goals
2.40 – 0.90
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Haro Deportivo home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Autol away threat
Scored in 0 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Haro Deportivo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 71%, against 71% / 17% / 12% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.40 goals for Haro Deportivo and 0.90 for Autol, a combined 3.30 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
88%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
30%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–010.6%
- 2–19.6%
- 1–08.9%
- 3–08.5%
- 1–18.0%
Recent form
Haro Deportivo
- 2026-09-27T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Yagüe · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Alfaro · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Calasancio · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Agoncillo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-14T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Náxara · 1-4 (L)
Autol
- 2026-05-10T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Berceo · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-03T10:00:00.000Z · A vs UD Logroñés II · 0-8 (L)
- 2026-04-26T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Oyonesa · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-04-19T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Pradejón · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-04-12T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Anguiano · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-01T18:00:00.000Z · Haro Deportivo 3-0 Autol (Tercera División RFEF - Group 16)
- 2025-11-23T16:00:00.000Z · Haro Deportivo 0-3 Autol (Tercera División RFEF - Group 16)
- 2025-03-09T16:00:00.000Z · Haro Deportivo 3-0 Autol (Tercera División RFEF - Group 16)
- 2024-10-27T16:00:00.000Z · Haro Deportivo 0-2 Autol (Tercera División RFEF - Group 16)
Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Haro Deportivo | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 16 |
| 2 | Alfaro | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| 3 | Berceo | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 15 |
| 4 | La Calzada | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 15 |
| 5 | Pradejón | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
| 6 | Varea | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 13 |
| 7 | Calahorra | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 12 |
| 8 | San Marcial | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 12 |
| 9 | Anguiano | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 11 |
| 10 | Oyonesa | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 11 | Agoncillo | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 9 |
| 12 | Comillas | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 6 |
| 13 | Yagüe | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -9 | 6 |
| 14 | Cenicero | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 5 |
| 15 | Calasancio | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 5 |
| 16 | Vianés | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -2 | 4 |
| 17 | River Ebro | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -10 | 4 |
| 18 | Casalarreina | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | -13 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Haro Deportivo win, at 70.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.